Research on Covid-19 Epidemic Based on Arima Model

Abstract

Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, the epidemic has received extensive attention all over the world. In this article, an evaluation system was established to analyze the epidemic prevention and control situation of some countries. And the ARIMA model was built to predict the epidemic situation in a short period of time. Then taking the United States as an example, the predicted values of the number of newly diagnosed cases, death rate, and cure rate in 10 days were obtained, which were then compared with the actual data. It is shown from the results that the ARIMA model can be used to predict the epidemic and provide a decision-making basis for the current world’s epidemic prevention and control.