Research on British epidemic forecastBased on SIR model

Abstract

Since the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 has swept the world and continues to threaten human society. Forecasting the future trend of the epidemics is very important for the prevention of COVID-19. The SIR model is an important mathematical model to forecast future epidemic in epidemiology. In a press conference from London on July 5th, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the British government will end nearly all of the coronavirus restrictions starting July 19. This paper aims to use the SIR model to predict epidemics after deregulation of social distance. The results show that as of July 8, 2021, the number of people infected will continue to increase after deregulation, reaching approximately 30000 per day. The British government should reconsider completely liberalizing epidemic control.