Requirements for the containment of COVID-19 disease outbreaks through periodic testing, isolation, and quarantine

Serrao, Shannon R.; Deng, Shaoli; Priyanka,; Mukhamadiarov, Ruslan I; Childs, Lauren M.; Täuber, Uwe C.

doi:10.1101/2020.10.21.20217331

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…( b ) more than 100 ?” is one such question. As noted in §1 however, agent-based models are very demanding in terms of computational time and effort; many such studies [4,34] use networks of 10,000 people and not larger. It is noteworthy that the two works we just cited both report on phenomena which are traditionally considered outside the ambit of lumped-parameter models; containment of the epidemic in the former study and mass testing and isolation in the latter.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Approach to the Dynamic Modeling of an Infectious Disease

Shayak

Sharma

2020

Preprint

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In this work we propose a delay differential equation as a lumped parameter or compartmental infectious disease model featuring high descriptive and predictive capability, extremely high adaptability and low computational requirement. Whereas the model has been developed in the context of COVID-19, it is general enough to be applicable mutatis mutandis to other diseases as well. Our fundamental modeling philosophy consists of a decoupling of public health intervention effects, immune response effects and intrinsic infection properties into separate terms. All parameters in the model are directly related to the disease and its management; we can measure or calculate their values a priori basis our knowledge of the phenomena involved, instead of having to extrapolate them from solution curves. Our model can accurately predict the effects of applying or withdrawing interventions, individually or in combination, and can quickly accommodate any newly released information regarding, for example, the infection properties and the immune response to an emerging infectious disease. After demonstrating that the baseline model can successfully explain the COVID-19 case trajectories observed all over the world, we systematically show how the model can be expanded to account for heterogeneous transmissibility, detailed contact tracing drives, mass testing endeavours and immune responses featuring different combinations of limited-time sterilizing immunity, severity-reducing immunity and antibody dependent enhancement.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Approach to the Dynamic Modeling of an Infectious Disease

Shayak

Sharma

2020

Preprint

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“…Following this work, we have further looked at the effects of introducing the incubation period to the modeling of the epidemics spread 29 . Our simulations of an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model have shown that the incubation period sets a delay to the infection onset and induces a broadening of the infection curves in comparison to the SIR model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models

Mukhamadiarov

Deng

Serrao

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Once an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection. We report individual-based numerical simulations of stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered model variants on four distinct spatially organized lattice and network architectures wherein contact and mobility constraints are implemented. We robustly find that the intensity and spatial spread of the epidemic recurrence wave can be limited to a manageable extent provided release of these restrictions is delayed sufficiently (for a duration of at least thrice the time until the peak of the unmitigated outbreak) and long-distance connections are maintained on a low level (limited to less than five percent of the overall connectivity).

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“…As noted in Section 2.1 however, agent-based models are very demanding in terms of computational time and effort; many such studies [25,32] use networks of 10,000 people and not larger. It is noteworthy that the two works we just cited both report on phenomena which are traditionally considered outside the ambit of lumped-parameter models; mass testing and isolation in the former study and containment of the epidemic in the latter.…”

Section: Limitations Conclusion and Future Directionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new approach to the dynamic modeling of an infectious disease

Augeraud

Banerjee

Dhersin³

et al. 2021

Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.

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In this work we propose a delay differential equation as a lumped parameter or compartmental infectious disease model featuring high descriptive and predictive capability, extremely high adaptability and low computational requirement. Whereas the model has been developed in the context of COVID-19, it is general enough to be applicable with such changes as necessary to other diseases as well. Our fundamental modeling philosophy consists of a decoupling of public health intervention effects, immune response effects and intrinsic infection properties into separate terms. All parameters in the model are directly related to the disease and its management; we can measure or calculate their values a priori basis our knowledge of the phenomena involved, instead of having to extrapolate them from solution curves. Our model can accurately predict the effects of applying or withdrawing interventions, individually or in combination, and can quickly accommodate any newly released information regarding, for example, the infection properties and the immune response to an emerging infectious disease. After demonstrating that the baseline model can successfully explain the COVID-19 case trajectories observed all over the world, we systematically show how the model can be expanded to account for heterogeneous transmissibility, detailed contact tracing drives, mass testing endeavours and immune responses featuring different combinations of temporary sterilizing immunity, severity-reducing immunity and antibody dependent enhancement.

show abstract

Requirements for the containment of COVID-19 disease outbreaks through periodic testing, isolation, and quarantine

Cited by 6 publications

References 57 publications

A New Approach to the Dynamic Modeling of an Infectious Disease

A New Approach to the Dynamic Modeling of an Infectious Disease

Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models

A new approach to the dynamic modeling of an infectious disease

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