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Abstract

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts mission is to deliver high quality global medium-range numerical weather predictions and monitoring of the Earth system to its Member States. The modelling and forecasting of natural hazards are an important part of this mission. The new strategy identified several goals: producing world leading weather and earth-system science, cutting edge technology and computational science, high quality products fit for purpose, efficient and easy access to products, and aiming to inspire and hire the best experts. Challenges for the future include integration of innovative observations into the earth system, a realistic representations of water, energy, and carbon cycles, coupling and initialisation of all earth system components, adequate representation of uncertainties and advances in software engineering. Progress in all these areas will need enhanced collaboration with Member States and partners across Europe and beyond.