Representation of Farmers' Behavior under Uncertainty with a Focus-Loss Constraint

Boussard, Jean-Marc; Petit, Michel

doi:10.2307/1236943

Cited by 56 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…In other words, the greater the food requirement at home, the lesser the extent of land allocation to apple by the farmer could be. It is not only food crop requirements or expenditures that are of importance to farmers, but also other home expenditures such as children's education expenses, etc., which are even more important [11,12]. Therefore, here the disaster level of income is used as a variable, which includes all critical expenditures and food requirements at home 6 .…”

Section: Determinants Of Land Allocation In Favour Of Applementioning

confidence: 99%

Role of expectations in land allocation towards fruit crops: the case of apple

Mehta¹

2010

Fruits

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-Introduction. Higher allocation of land in favour of fruits is vital to raise the farm income and productivity, but such an opportunity is also complemented with higher risk and uncertainty. Economic expectation assumes a great role, while such decisions have an impact on the welfare of farmers in terms of their income and risk. In this paper, we examined the nature of price expectations, their relationship with other economic factors, and analysed the importance of price and income expectations of the fruit (apple) growers on their land allocation decisions. Materials and methods. In this paper, the elicitation technique was used to obtain both price and income expectations of apple growers. The price expectations were compared with the actual price of apple over the last three years and then linked with farmers' input-use propensities. A regression method was used to identify the role of expectations in the decision of land allocation in favour of apple crops. Results and conclusion. Our results showed that better price expectation improves the input-use (generally labour) propensities. However, for allocation of the inelastic factor of production, i.e., land, in favour of a fruit crop, it is the income expectations that explain farmers' decisions. Farmers' capacity to generate higher productivity along with the better market prospects together explain their decision regarding allocating land to high value fruit crops. India / Malus / fruit growing / socioeconomic environment / land use / farm income Rôle de l'anticipation dans l'allocation des terres en cultures fruitières : le cas du pommier.Résumé -Introduction. De meilleures attributions de terres en faveur des arbres fruitiers seraient essentielles pour améliorer les revenus agricoles et la productivité, mais une telle orientation est également assortie d'un certain risque et d'incertitude. Les anticipations écono-miques jouent un rôle important, puisque de telles décisions ont un impact sur le bien-être des agriculteurs en termes de revenus et de risques. Dans cet article, nous avons examiné la nature des anticipations du prix et des revenus par les producteurs de fruits (pommes) vis-à-vis de leurs décisions d'affectation des terres. Matériel et méthodes. Dans cet article, la technique de collecte d'informations a été utilisée pour obtenir des anticipations de prix et de revenus par les producteurs de pommes. Les anticipations de prix ont été comparées avec le prix réel des pommes au cours des trois dernières années et liées à la propension des agriculteurs à utiliser des intrants. La méthode de régression a été utilisée pour identifier le rôle de l'anticipation dans la décision d'allocation des terres en faveur de la culture du pommier. Résultats et conclusion. Les résultats ont montré que l'attente de meilleurs prix améliore la propension à utiliser des intrants (main-d'oeuvre, en général). Toutefois, pour l'allocation du facteur inélastique de production, à savoir, la terre, en faveur d'une culture fruitière, ce sont les attentes de revenus ...

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Section: Determinants Of Land Allocation In Favour Of Applementioning

confidence: 99%

Role of expectations in land allocation towards fruit crops: the case of apple

Mehta¹

2010

Fruits

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“…These variations of linear programming include the incorporation of games theory in a programming formulation (Dorfman, Samuelson and Solow, 1958;McInerney, 1969;Hazell, 1970), the use of constraints involving maximum permissible loss (Boussard and Petit, 1967;Boussard, 1971) and the use of the mean absolute deviation instead of the variance as measure of risk (Hazell, 1971). Chen and Baker (1974) illustrated how the (E-V) frontier of quadratic programming can be approximated by introducing a marginal risk constraint in a multidimensional linear programming model.…”

Section: Fig 1 -Graphic Representation Of the (E-v) Frontier Utilitmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of Certain Decision-Making Techniques Under Risk—an Empirical Investigation of Maize Cultivar Selection

Zÿl

Groenewald

1986

Agrekon

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Results obtained with stochastic dominance, linear risk-programming (MOTAD), regression line evaluation and expected value calculations on maize-cultivar selection under varying circumstances were compared. Maize cultivar trial results of four localities over 14 years were used. Two levels of management were included.Cultivar selections obtained by the different methods show a remarkable similarity. This is probably the result of the relative normal distribution in cultivar gross margins.The largest single disadvantage of cultivar selection by adaptation regressions and expected value calculations is that it considers only the value of the gross margin and largely ignores the variance. This can lead to selection of ill-adapted cultivars. Stochastic dominance and MOTAD take both the expected value and variance into consideration. MOTAD is particularly useful as it invariably selects cultivar combinations.

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“…For many empirical studies it is appropriate to allow explicitly for a disaster avoidance motive. This is one of the objectives of the use of safety-first models that use some variant of minimizing the probability of disaster or maximizing return given a constraint on the probability of disaster (Roy, 1952;Boussard and Petit, 1967). It may also be useful to define disaster avoidance using an expected utility model where there is a jump or vertical section (and a consequent non-concavity) in the utility function.…”

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confidence: 99%

Utility Functions With Jump Discontinuities: Some Evidence and Implications From Peasant Agriculture

Masson

1974

Economic Inquiry

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Representation of Farmers' Behavior under Uncertainty with a Focus-Loss Constraint

Cited by 56 publications

References 12 publications

Role of expectations in land allocation towards fruit crops: the case of apple

Role of expectations in land allocation towards fruit crops: the case of apple

A Comparison of Certain Decision-Making Techniques Under Risk—an Empirical Investigation of Maize Cultivar Selection

Utility Functions With Jump Discontinuities: Some Evidence and Implications From Peasant Agriculture

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