Representation of adaptation in quantitative climate assessments

Maanen, Nicole van; Lissner, Tabea; Harmsen, Mathijs; Piontek, Franziska; Andrijevic, Marina; Vuuren, Detlef van

doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01644-1

Cited by 11 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…It is worth noting that this transition is extremely challenging and needs to be assessed in a broader set of dimensions, including the economic, social, political and institutional aspects that might influence its feasibility. One issue to note is that adaptation is still poorly represented in most IAMs (van Maanen et al 2023). Depending on the sector, adaptation is either included in a stylized manner and only to a certain extent (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate impacts are included in IAMs in coarse time scales (annual, at best), while adaptation measures are designed for high impact weather events that tend to have shorter time frames. Nonetheless, having a more detailed sectoral representation, IAMs provide a unique opportunity for better representation of climate adaptation and its relation to climate mitigation (van Maanen et al 2023) and sustainable development.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate policy and the SDGs agenda: how does near-term action on nexus SDGs influence the achievement of long-term climate goals?

Schmidt Tagomori,

Harmsen,

Awais

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent the global ambition to accelerate sustainable development. Several SDGs are directly related to climate change and policies aiming to mitigate it. This includes, among others, the set of SDGs that directly influence the climate, land, energy, and water (CLEW) nexus (SDGs 2, 6, 7, 13, 15). This study aims at understanding the synergies and trade-offs between climate policy and the SDGs agenda: how does near-term action on SDGs influence long-term climate goals? Based on a multi-model comparison, we evaluate three scenarios: i) reference; ii) climate mitigation; and iii) a CLEW nexus SDGs scenario. We find clear positive effects of combining the climate and the sustainable development agendas. Notably, healthier diets, with reduced meat consumption, have strong co-benefits for climate, with positive effects across multiple SDGs: improvements in food security, reductions in air pollution and water stress, and improvements in biodiversity conservation. Such positive outcomes are prominent in the Global South, where regions typically at higher risk of food and energy insecurity and other environmental stresses (e.g., Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America) benefit from a shorter term agenda focusing not only on the climate but also on the other sustainable development dimensions. However, trade-offs are also observed (e.g., increases in the prices of food and electricity), especially in the dynamics of land and the food systems, highlighting the importance of exploring policy synergies: if individually applied, some measures can negatively impact other sustainability goals, while taking into consideration the nexus interactions can reduce trade-offs and increase co-benefits. Finally, near-term action on SDGs can help speed up the transition towards the long-term climate goals, reducing the reliance on negative emissions options. In 2100, the SDG scenario in significantly less reliant on carbon dioxide removals both from AFOLU and the energy system.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate policy and the SDGs agenda: how does near-term action on nexus SDGs influence the achievement of long-term climate goals?

Schmidt Tagomori,

Harmsen,

Awais

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Climatic risks to adaptive capacity

Serdeczny,

Andrijevic,

Fyson

et al. 2024

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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Does climate change influence if societies will be better or worse equipped to reduce climatic risks in the future? A society’s adaptive capacity determines whether the potential of adaptation to reduce risks will be realized. Assumptions about the level of adaptive capacity are inherently made when the potential for adaptation to reduce risks in the future and resultant levels of risk are estimated. In this review, we look at the literature on human impacts of climate change through the lens of adaptive capacity. Building on evidence of impacts on financial resources as presented in the Working Group 2 (WG2) report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), we here present the methodology behind this review and complement it with an analysis of climatic risks to human resources. Based on our review, we argue that climate change itself adds to adaptation constraints and limits. We show that for more realistic assessments of sectoral climate risks, assumed levels of future adaptive capacity should — and can — be usefully constrained in assessments that rely on expert judgment, and propose avenues for doing so.

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