Our aim was to study the effect, during the period 1979 -1996, of the potential risk factors (i) year, age at second visit and first screening interval on the frequency of detection of low-and high-grade smears at the second visit after a normal smear at the first visit; (ii) year, age at second visit and low-grade smears at first visit on the detection of high-grade smears at second visit; (iii) detection of low-and high-grade smears by calendar year at second visit after a normal first visit (period 1981-1996); (iv) proportion of high-grade smears at second visit attributable to low-grade smears at first visit (exposed group); and (v) effect of increasing the screening interval from 2 to 5 years. The results were as follows: (i) low-grade smears increased significantly with years, highgrade smears increased significantly with screening interval and both grades decreased significantly with age; (ii) highgrade smears increased significantly with low-grade smears at first visit and with year but decreased significantly with age; (iii) a significant increase in low-grade smears at second visit with years; (iv) 97% of high-grade smears at second visit were attributable to low-grade smears at first visit; and (v) the risk of high-grade smears was 60% higher when the screening interval was 5 years rather than 2 years after a normal visit at age 20. The Cancer Detection Clinic of The Icelandic Cancer Society has carried out cervical cancer screening since 1964, with the aim of diagnosing these cases at a preinvasive [cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)] or an asymptomatic early invasive stage. The working rules for the screening are based on the following: (i) the assumption that CIN lesions develop from low-grade through high-grade lesions to invasive cancer 1 and (ii) Icelandic studies indicating that screening should start before the age of 25 and that the screening interval can vary depending on age and screening history of the women. 2,3 Our aim was to study how the frequency of detection of preinvasive disease (percentage of abnormal smears) at a second visit during the period 1979 -1996 was affected by low-grade disease at the first visit, age and calendar year at the second visit and the time lag between the first 2 screenings, using the following analyses: (i) frequency of detection of low-and high-grade smears at the second visit by calendar year in the targeted age group (20 -69 years) after a first normal screening visit; (ii) effects of the time lag between the first 2 consecutive visits and of screening year and age at the second visit on the frequency of both low-and high-grade smears at the second visit after a normal first visit; (iii) proportion of high-grade smears at the second visit attributable to low-grade smears at the first visit.
MATERIAL AND METHODSFrom the start of organized cervical cancer screening in Iceland, all material obtained on attendance and screening results has been recorded in the database of The Cancer Detection Clinic. During this period, different systems for classifica...