Reply to commentaries on “System Dynamics at Sixty: The Path Forward”

Sterman, John D.

doi:10.1002/sdr.1626

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 26 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We establish an analytical framework based on a view of stakeholders’ interaction. The approach for establishing the framework is system dynamics, which is particularly suitable for problems with continuous and dynamic quantities interconnected in feedback loops and circular causality [ 28 ]. The interaction among these stakeholders is simulated within the classic four-step transport theory [ 29 , 30 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Emerging Transport Technologies on Freight Economic and Environmental Performance: A System Dynamics View

Guo

Chen

Liu

2022

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Road freight transport promotes economic development while impeding the future of green development due to excessive fossil fuel use. Road freight enterprises need to adapt to stricter environmental regulations while maintaining a reasonable level of profit. However, this is not easy in a growing economy such as China’s, whose domestic freight demand is increasing rapidly with economic growth. The development of emerging transport technologies (ETTs) creates great potential for reducing the negative environmental impact of road freight transport. This study considers five candidate ETTs: eco-driving, fleet platooning, vehicle utilization, optimized vehicle design, and renewable energy trucks. A system dynamics analytical framework is established to explore the long-term impact of ETTs on road profit and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the uncertainty of macroeconomic development. Road freight enterprises affiliated with the Qingdao port in China are taken as a case study. The economic and environmental impact of their adoption of ETTs is projected from 2020 to 2035. The results show that the economic growth in the port hinterland leads to an increase in road freight volume and profit, but it also yields a greater amount of GHG emissions from road transport. All of the candidate ETTs exhibit a positive effect on reducing GHG emissions from road transport, but they also cause profit losses due to a high application cost, even though they reduce transport operating costs by fuel savings. The results of the Sobol sensitivity analysis show that GHG reductions are sensitive to the adoption of ETTs. Thus, a carbon-based compensation mechanism is introduced. With this mechanism, road freight enterprises should prioritize vehicle utilization, optimized vehicle design, and eco-driving in their adoption of ETTs for more sustainable development. The results provide systems-based insights into ETT deployment decisions for road freight companies.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Emerging Transport Technologies on Freight Economic and Environmental Performance: A System Dynamics View

Guo

Chen

Liu

2022

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As technical progress has advanced, some widely encompassing descriptions of the methodological boundaries of system dynamics have emerged. For example, Sterman (2019, p. 36) asserted that “system dynamics models can be and are instantiated using a variety of modeling architectures including compartment models, individual (agent‐based) models, dynamic network models, discrete simulation models and so on.”…”

Section: Previous Attempts To Define the Field Of System Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

What is (quantitative) system dynamics modeling? Defining characteristics and the opportunities they create

Naugle,

Langarudi,

Clancy

2024

System Dynamics Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A clear definition of system dynamics modeling can provide shared understanding and clarify the impact of the field. We introduce a set of characteristics that define quantitative system dynamics, selected to capture core philosophy, describe theoretical and practical principles, and apply to historical work but be flexible enough to remain relevant as the field progresses. The defining characteristics are: (1) models are based on causal feedback structure, (2) accumulations and delays are foundational, (3) models are equation‐based, (4) concept of time is continuous, and (5) analysis focuses on feedback dynamics. We discuss the implications of these principles and use them to identify research opportunities in which the system dynamics field can advance. These research opportunities include causality, disaggregation, data science and AI, and contributing to scientific advancement. Progress in these areas has the potential to improve both the science and practice of system dynamics. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

show abstract

“…Randers (2019) suggested that focusing on modeling methodology overlooked the importance of implementation methodology. Sterman (2019) himself replied to these.…”

Section: A Brief History Of the Quality Debatementioning

confidence: 99%

Never the strongest: reconciling the four schools of thought in system dynamics in the debate on quality

Clancy

Langarudi

Zaini

2023

System Dynamics Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

All eventually fell to Rome. Likewise, the reign of Emperor Shah Jahan was considered a "Golden Age" of the Mughal Empire in what today is India, but as he fell ill, the Mughal tradition that succession went to 'the strongest' took hold. Jahan's sons rebelled, fighting against one another and imprisoning their father, the Shah, who lived for another 8 years. The Mughal Empire soon fell apart.By contrast, the inheritor of Alexander's Aristotelian influence was the city of Alexandria, founded as a center of learning, science, and knowledge. However, Alexandria's strength was not the excellence of a single academy within it-but the dozens of philosophical and scientific pursuits studied there. Schools reconciled to the existence of one another turned that energy instead to accumulating, cataloging, and furthering philosophy, science, medicine, mathematics, and astronomy.With the passing of Jay Forrester, the field of system dynamics exists at a similar crossroads. Debates of implicit, if not explicit, inheritance and future direction are already breaking out among competing generals. Who owns Forrester's legacy? Will we proceed down the reference mode of the Macedonian and Mughal Empires-or will we instead seek an alternative reference mode of Alexandria: integration, reconciliation, and mutually recognized coexistence of different schools within the broader field of system dynamics?We suggest the latter path-and that begins by recognizing at least four, if not more, distinct schools of thought on how to approach system dynamics

show abstract

Reply to commentaries on “System Dynamics at Sixty: The Path Forward”

Cited by 6 publications

References 26 publications

Impact of Emerging Transport Technologies on Freight Economic and Environmental Performance: A System Dynamics View

Impact of Emerging Transport Technologies on Freight Economic and Environmental Performance: A System Dynamics View

What is (quantitative) system dynamics modeling? Defining characteristics and the opportunities they create

Never the strongest: reconciling the four schools of thought in system dynamics in the debate on quality

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About