Repercussions of a CO2 doubling on the water balance — a case study in Switzerland

Bultot, Franz; Gellens, D.; Spreafico, Manfred; Schädler, Bruno

doi:10.1016/0022-1694(92)90056-2

Cited by 46 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Drogue et al, 2004;Gangopadhyay and Clark, 2005;Kang and Ramirez, 2007) to provide the climatic input for medium to long term impact analysis on water resources (see e.g. Bultot et al, 1992;Beniston, 2003;Hagg and Braun, 2005;Hagg et al, 2007) and on hydrological extremes (see e.g. Burlando and Rosso, 2002b;Boroneant et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy

Groppelli

Soncini

Bocchiola

et al. 2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. We investigate future (2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050)(2051)(2052)(2053)(2054) hydrological cycle of the snow fed Oglio (≈1800 km 2 ) Alpine watershed in Northern Italy. A Stochastic Space Random Cascade (SSRC) approach is used to downscale future precipitation from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base and chosen for this purpose based upon previous studies. We then downscale temperature output from the GCMs to obtain temperature fields for the area. We also consider a projected scenario based upon trends locally observed in former studies, LOC scenario. Then, we feed the downscaled fields to a minimal hydrological model to build future hydrological scenarios. We provide projected flow duration curves and selected flow descriptors, giving indication of expected modified (against control run for 1990-1999) regime of low flows and droughts and flood hazard, and thus evaluate modified peak floods regime through indexed flood. We then assess the degree of uncertainty, or spread, of the projected water resources scenarios by feeding the hydrological model with ensembles projections consistent with our deterministic (GCMs + LOC) scenarios, and we evaluate the significance of the projected flow variables against those observed in the control run. The climate scenarios from the adopted GCMs differ greatly from one another with respect to projected precipitation amount and temperature regimes, and so do the projected hydrological scenarios. A relatively good agreement is found upon prospective shrinkage and shorter duration of the seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature patterns, and upon prospective increase of hydrological losses, i.e. evapotranspiration, for the same reason. However, precipitation patterns are less consistent, because HadCM3 and PCM models project noticeably increased precipitation for 2045-2054, whereas CCSM3 provides decreased precipCorrespondence to: D. Bocchiola (daniele.bocchiola@polimi.it) itation patterns therein. The LOC scenario instead displays unchanged precipitation. The ensemble simulations indicate that several projected flow variables under the considered scenarios are significantly different from their control run counterparts, and also that snow cover seems to significantly decrease in duration and depth. The proposed hydrological scenarios eventually provide a what-if analysis, giving a broad view of the possible expected impacts of climate change within the Italian Alps, necessary to trigger the discussion about future adaptation strategies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy

Groppelli

Soncini

Bocchiola

et al. 2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…More detailed investigations, on the other hand, are restricted to mere case studies (e.g. Bultot et al, 1992Bultot et al, , 1994Gurtz et al, 2003;Jasper et al, 2004;Middelkoop et al, 2001;Verbunt et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How does climate change affect mesoscale catchments in Switzerland? – a framework for a comprehensive assessment

et al. 2010

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Abstract. Within the framework of this study we identify mesoscale catchments in Switzerland that exhibit sensitivity towards a change in climate with a focus on alterations of the water balance and peak flow conditions. For this study, the hydrological modelling system PREVAH is used, which is a semi-distributed and conceptual yet process-oriented model forced with hourly meteorological input on basis of a spatial resolution of 500×500 m 2 . We calibrate the model where measured discharge records are available and transfer the calibrated model parameters to ungauged catchments through regionalisation, to arrive at a comprehensive set of model parameters for the entire area of Switzerland. To assess future changes, we apply an extensive set of 16 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to the catchments. The RCM data are downscaled to a dense network of meteorological stations for the period from 2021 to 2050 using the Delta Change Approach. This downscaling method incorporates a bias correction of the RCM output and provides change rates and values for precipitation and temperature.In the present paper we describe the application of a calibration and regionalisation procedure developed previously for Northern Alpine catchments to Southern catchments. The necessity to differentiate between a Northern and a Southern Alpine region, with their distinct climatologic and physiogeographic features, has proved true as the calibrated parameter sets show systematic differences between those regions, e.g. for the runoff forming parameters percolation rate (PERC) or storage time for quick runoff (KOH). For the Southern Alpine area, we calibrated two thirds of the available catchments, i.e. 23 out of 36, successfully for standard and flood conditions according to a combined model score of a linear and logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency (NSE, NSE ln ) and a mean annual volumetric deviation (VD a ). TheCorrespondence to: N. Köplin (nina.koeplin@giub.unibe.ch) rate of successfully calibrated catchments is rather small in comparison with the results for the Northern Alpine catchments, where 140 out of 159 calibrations have been successful, and the distribution of the Southern catchments is more irregular. However, as the median NSE and NSE ln as well as the range of VD a show an overall good model fit, a successful regionalisation may be expected. Next steps are the regionalisation of the Southern Alpine model parameters and the application of climate scenarios to the complete set of catchments, i.e. about 200 Swiss mesoscale catchments with an average area of 150 km 2 . Thus we can identify process-based relationships between climate sensitivity and catchment characteristics and provide quantitative information on future water balance and peak flow conditions of Swiss mesoscale catchments.

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“…A shift to earlier and increased winter runoff and decreased spring and summer runoff was simulated by a range of waterbalance models (Gleick,, 1987;Mimikou et ai., 1991) and conceptual lumped-parameter models (Lettenmaier and Gan, 1990;Bultot et al, 1992) for different snowmelt basins of the globe.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Meteorology Belgium'(1RMB) model (Bultot and Dupriez, 1976) has been applied to basins in Belgium (Bultot et a/., 1988) and Switzerland (Bultot et a/., 1992). The HYDROLOG model (Porter and McMahon, 1971) was applied to two basins in south Australia (Nathan, McMahon, and Finlayson, 1988).…”

Section: Concedtual Lumded-parameter Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Natural Resource Systems

Frederick¹,

Rosenberg²

1994

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Repercussions of a CO2 doubling on the water balance — a case study in Switzerland

Cited by 46 publications

References 3 publications

Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy

Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy

How does climate change affect mesoscale catchments in Switzerland? – a framework for a comprehensive assessment

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Natural Resource Systems

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