Repeat Glacier Collapses and Surges in the Amney Machen Mountain Range, Tibet, Possibly Triggered by a Developing Rock-Slope Instability

Paul, Frank

doi:10.3390/rs11060708

Cited by 41 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(51 reference statements)

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“…While some studies indicate that glacier surges in the Karakoram are triggered by an interplay of thermal and hydrological conditions (Quincey et al, 2015), others suggest that the glacier surges could be controlled by landscape topographic (Lovell et al, 2018) and geomorphic characteristics (Paul, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The January 2018 to September 2019 surge of Shisper Glacier, Pakistan, detected from remote sensing observations

et al. 2020

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This study analysed the actively surging Shisper Glacier in the Karakoram region of Pakistan using earth observation data from Landsat OLI and Planet images. Changes in the surface glacier velocity, supraglacial moraines and debris cover were assessed using Landsat 8 data at monthly time-steps from January 2018 to May 2019. High resolution data from Planet Labs was used to precisely detect the snout advance and ice-dammed lake expansion. Downstream cross-section profiles of the valley were generated using a moderate resolution digital elevation model to assess the inundation in the event of rapid ice-dammed lake drainage. Correlation Image Analysis Software working on the principle of normalized crosscorrelation was used to generate time series monthly surface velocity profiles for Shisper Glacier. Manual digitization at 1:30000 scale was used to delineate supraglacial moraines and supraglacial debris cover. The glacier surface velocity profiles indicate that the ablation zone of the glacier continues to be in an active surge phase resulting in advance of the snout and expansion of the ice-dammed lake. Surface glacier velocities are as high as 48 m d-1. Between 18 December 2018 and 8 May 2019, the glacier snout advanced at ~6 m d-1 with a total overall advance of 860 m. The lake formed due to damming of outflow stream from Mochowar Glacier expanded to its maximum area (29.69 ha) in May 2019 before drainage started on 23 June 2019. Our estimates indicate that the peak discharge in case of rapid drainage could vary between 5033 m 3 s-1 and 6167 m 3 s-1 and potentially affect infrastructure downstream.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The January 2018 to September 2019 surge of Shisper Glacier, Pakistan, detected from remote sensing observations

et al. 2020

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“…Another destructive event raising great attention is the 2016 collapses of two valley glaciers in the Aru mountain range in the western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), which caused nine casualties (Bai and He, 2020;Gilbert et al, 2018;Kääb et al, 2018;Tian et al, 2016). In addition to these two well-known events, a few historical collapses of valley glaciers are recently recognized and analyzed, such as the 2007 detachment of Leñas glacier in the Argentinian Andes (Falaschi et al, 2019), the three repeat collapses (in 2004, 2007, and 2016) of a glacier in the Amney Machen mountain range of the eastern QTP (Paul, 2019), and the twice (2013 and 2015) collapses of the lower parts of Flat…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some detachments occurred in surge-type glaciers. For example, the Kolka glacier and the Amney Machen glacier have experienced repeated surging in history (Kotlyakov, 2004;Paul, 2019). The collapses of Aru glaciers were also preceded by geometry changes in the form of surge-like behaviors, although they were not known as surging before (Gilbert et al, 2018;Kääb et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progressive advance and runout hazard assessment of a low-angle valley glacier in East Kunlun Mountains from multi-sensor satellite imagery analysis

Wang¹,

Liu²,

Hu³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Collapses of large parts of low-angle mountain glaciers in recent years have raised great attention due to their threats to lives and properties downstream. While current studies have mainly focused on post-event analysis, assessing the potential hazard of glaciers prone to collapse is rare. Here we presented a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics and runout hazard of a low-angle (~ 20°) valley glacier, close to the Qinghai–Tibet railway and highway, in the Kunlun Pass of East Kunlun Mountains on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The changes in morphology, terminus position, and surface elevation of the glacier between 1975 and 2019 were characterized with multi-sensor remote sensing data including a stereo-image pair from the historical KH-9 spy satellite, six Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), and nine high-resolution images from Planet Labs. The surface flow velocities of the glacier tongue between 2009 and 2019 were also tracked based on cross-correlation of Planet images. Our observations show that the glacier snout has been progressively advancing in recent four decades, with a stepwise increase of advance velocity from 4.25 ± 0.28 m a−1 between 1975 and 2009 to 32.53 ± 4.45 m a−1 between 2015 and 2019. DEM differencing confirms the glacial advance, with surface thinning in the source region and thickening in the tongue region. The net volume loss over the glacier tongue was about 11.21 ± 2.66 × 105 m3 during 1975–2019. Image cross-correlation reveals that the surface flow velocity of the glacier tongue has been increasing in recent years, with the mean velocity below 4800 m almost trebled from 22 ± 4 cm a−1 during 2009–2012 to 61 ± 5 cm a−1 during 2016–2019. Piecing these observations together, we suggest that the flow of the glacier tongue is mainly controlled by the geometry of the glacier, while the presence of an ice-dammed lake and a supraglacial pond implies a hydrological influence as well. Taking the glacier tongue as an avalanche source, we quantitively simulated the potential runout distance using the Voellmy–Salm avalanche model. The simulations predict that the avalanche of the glacier tongue will result in a maximum runout distance of about 1.3 km with moderate friction parameters, unlikely to threaten the safety of the Qinghai–Tibet railway.

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“…Indeed, several detachments similar to the Aru events, though smaller in magnitude, have been detected since (Falaschi et. al., 2019;Paul 2019;Jacquemart et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…CC BY 4.0 License. 3.4 Amney Machen, 2004Machen, , 2007Machen, , 2016, and 2019, eastern Tibet A sequence of surge-like advances, some of them ending in detachments of the glacier tongue, have been observed for a glacier and the involved volume was estimated to be 20-25 10 6 m 3 , perhaps up to 36 10 6 m 3 according to a local information signboard (Paul, 2019). Three years later, between 23 September and 2 November 2007, a second detachment followed a surge-386 like advance, or surge-like recovery, of the glacier tongue that had detached in 2004.…”

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confidence: 99%

Sudden large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers – more frequent than thought

Kaeaeb¹,

Jacquemart²,

Gilbert³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. The detachment of large parts of low-angle mountain glaciers, resulting in massive ice-rock avalanches, have so far been believed to be a unique type of event, made known to the global scientific community first for the 2002 Kolka Glacier detachment, Caucasus Mountains, and then for the 2016 collapses of two glaciers in the Aru range, Tibet. Since 2016, several so-far unknown glacier detachments have been discovered and described, and new ones occurred. In the current contribution, we compile, compare and discuss 19 actual or possible large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers at nine different sites in the Caucasus, the Pamirs, Tibet, Alaska’s St. Elias mountains, and the Southern Andes. Many of the detachments reached volumes in the order of 10–100 million m3. Commonalities and differences between the cases investigated suggest that a set of different conditions drives a transient combination of factors related to low basal friction, high driving stress, concentration of shear stress, and low resistance to exceed stability thresholds. Particularly, soft bedrocks below the detached glaciers seem to be a common condition among the observed events, as they offer smooth contact areas between the glacier and its substratum while being prone to till-strength weakening and eventually basal failure under high pore-water pressure. Surface slopes of the detached glaciers range between around 10° and 20°, possibly on the one hand low enough to enable development of thick and thus large-volume glaciers, and on the other hand steep enough to allow critical basal stresses to build up. Most of the ice-rock avalanches resulting from the detachments in this study have a particularly low angle of reach, down to around 0.1 (apparent friction angle), likely due to their high ice content and connected liquefaction potential, the ready availability of soft basal slurries and large amounts of basal water, and the smooth topographic setting typical for glacial valleys. Low-angle glacier detachments combine elements, and likely also physical processes of glacier surges and ice break-offs from steep glaciers. The surge-like temporal evolution ahead of several detachments or their geographic proximity to other surge-type glaciers suggests the glacier detachments investigated can be interpreted as end-members of the continuum of surge-like glacier instabilities. Though rare, glacier detachments appear more frequent than previously thought and disclose, despite local differences in conditions and precursory evolutions, the fundamental and critical potential of low-angle soft glacier beds to fail catastrophically.

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Repeat Glacier Collapses and Surges in the Amney Machen Mountain Range, Tibet, Possibly Triggered by a Developing Rock-Slope Instability

Cited by 41 publications

References 32 publications

The January 2018 to September 2019 surge of Shisper Glacier, Pakistan, detected from remote sensing observations

The January 2018 to September 2019 surge of Shisper Glacier, Pakistan, detected from remote sensing observations

Progressive advance and runout hazard assessment of a low-angle valley glacier in East Kunlun Mountains from multi-sensor satellite imagery analysis

Sudden large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers – more frequent than thought

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