Reopening strategies, mobility and COVID-19 infections in Europe: panel data analysis

Abstract

ObjectivesCharacterise the reopening policies of European countries after the first wave of infections and evaluate how these policies affected economic activity and subsequent infections.Study designUsing publicly available data, we construct a database of reopening policy announcements by country authorities and develop measures related to the speed and timing of reopening. Using panel data regressions, we then assess how a country’s reopening action subsequently affected its mobility and COVID-19 infections. Samples of 22 European countries used in the study comprise: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine and the UK.Main outcomesMobility index as well as COVID-19 case and death counts.ResultsReopening policies are associated with a 1.5 percentage point increase in mobility and a 4% increase in subsequent infections after 2 weeks. However, some reopening strategies are associated with lower infection risk. In particular, early and fast reopeners saw 5%–10% increases in infections relative to those that opened later and adopted a gradual approach. The sequencing of sectoral reopenings matters, with infection amplification effects larger for some sectors (like retail and events) than others (like schools).ConclusionsFindings suggest some merit of gradual and late reopening strategies with a careful sequencing of sectoral openings based on their infection amplification risks.

Lifting Statewide Mask Mandates and COVID-19 Cases

“…These findings augment the existing research on the benefits of mask-wearing 1 , 23 , 24 and reopening policy 6 , 25 , 26 by emphasizing the COVID-19 trends associated with lifting mask mandates in Iowa in spring 2021. The results were in contrast to studies of Texas where lifting the mask mandate and reopening did not seem to be associated with an increase in mobility or infections.…”

“…These results were consistent with findings on the association of introducing mask mandates in Kansas 8 and reopening decisions in the United States 29 and across Europe. 6 Our findings added a more nuanced understanding of the mechanism by showing that while mask-wearing was reduced, mobility of people did not increase. The results suggested that containment policies such as mask mandates should be kept in place at least until population immunity through widespread vaccinations is achieved.…”

“…Yet, to date, there are a limited number of studies that investigated how different reopening strategies performed. 6 In July 2020, the state of Kansas issued an executive order to require mask-wearing in public places. Counties were free to opt-out of the state mandate, and more than 75% of them did.…”

“…Yet, to date, there are a limited number of studies that investigated how different reopening strategies performed. 6 …”

Entwicklung konkreter Handlungsoptionen für die sichere Öffnung und den Betrieb von Freizeitdestinationen unter Pandemiebedingungen

“…Inzwischen liegen für die im Rahmen der SARS-CoV-2-Pandemie implementierten Wiedereröffnungsstrategien erste länderspezifische Analysen vor [ 16 ]. Im Bereich der Unterhaltungs- und Event-Industrie existieren derzeit lediglich mathematische Vorhersagemodelle [ 2 , 41 ] sowie die im Pandemieverlauf veröffentlichten Handlungsoptionen und Rahmenkonzepte mit Teilbereichen aus dem Infektions- und Arbeitsschutz [ 28 ].…”