Renewable heating: Perspectives and the impact of policy instruments

Kranzl, Lukas; Hummel, Marcus; Müller, Andreas; Steinbach, Jan

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.050

Cited by 57 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Nevertheless, in reality an adoption of pellets would also be expected without being economically competitive. Such non-cost optimal adoption behaviors are better included in simple adoption models such as Invert tool [83,84] that includes a statistical randomness in the adoption process, but neglects, e.g., the temporal operation. Nevertheless, the information basis for investment decisions is improving wherefore the assumption in this work of a cost optimal investment stays reasonable.…”

Section: Buildings As Economic Entitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bottom-up energy supply optimization of a national building stock

Kotzur¹,

Markewitz²,

Robinius³

et al. 2020

Energy and Buildings

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The installation and operation distributed energy resources (DER) and the electrification of the heat supply significantly changes the interaction of the residential building stock with the grid infrastructure. Evaluating the mass deployment of DER at the national level would require analyzing millions of individual buildings, entailing significant computational burden.To overcome this, this work proposes a novel bottom-up model that consists of an aggregation algorithm to create a spatially distributed set of typical residential buildings from census data. Each typical building is then optimized with a Mixed-Integer Linear Program to derive its cost optimal technology adoption and operation, determining its changing grid load in future scenarios.The model is validated for Germany, with 200 typical buildings considered to sufficiently represent the diversity of the residential building stock. In a future scenario for 2050, photovoltaic and heat pumps are predicted to be the most economically and ecologically robust supply solutions for the different building types. Nevertheless, their electricity generation and demand temporally do not match, resulting in a doubling of the peak electricity grid load in the rural areas during the winter. The urban areas can compensate this with efficient co-generation units, which are not cost-efficient in the rural areas.

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Section: Buildings As Economic Entitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bottom-up energy supply optimization of a national building stock

Kotzur¹,

Markewitz²,

Robinius³

et al. 2020

Energy and Buildings

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“…Substitutions can be further constrained to account for behavioural and technical plausibility/feasibility. We follow Kranzl et al (2013) and assume that households would not switch back to technologies with a much lower comfort level, i.e. that households with modern heating systems (such as district heat, gas, electricity) would not go back to coal or traditional biomass.…”

Section: Technology Diffusion Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C

et al. 2018

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Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5°C suggest that direct carbon emissions in the buildings sector should decrease to almost zero by 2050, but leave unanswered the question how this could be achieved by real-world policies. We simulate which policy measures could induce an almost complete decarbonisation of residential heating, the by far largest source of direct emissions in residential buildings. Under which assumptions is it possible, and how long would it take? We use the non-equilibrium bottom-up model FTT:Heat to simulate policies for a transition towards low-carbon heating in a context of inertia and bounded rationality, focusing on the uptake of heating systems. Our results indicate that the near-zero decarbonisation is achievable by 2050, but requires substantial policy efforts. We find that policy mixes are more effective for incentivising the uptake of fuelefficient low-carbon technologies, compared to a residential carbon tax as the only policy. In combination with subsidies and procurement policies for renewables, near-complete decarbonisation could be achieved with a tax of 50-200 €/tCO 2. Without being complimented by additional policies, carbon taxes show a decreasing marginal impact on total emission reductions, thus remaining insufficient for deep decarbonisation. In all scenarios, the decarbonisation of heating would increase projected heating costs faced by households initially, but could lead to cost reductions in most world regions in the medium term. We show that the potential impacts of policies highly depend on behavioural decisionmaking by households, especially in a context of deep decarbonisation and rapid transformation.

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“…DIN V 4108-6, DIN V 4701-10 and DIN EN ISO 13790, that describe the energy-related characteristics of a building based on physical and behavioural parameters [4][5][6]. When analysing buildings' energy demand from an energy economics perspective bottom-up vintage models are applied [7][8][9][10]. These bottom-up models capture the building typology of entire countries by construction period, building type and building standard, where each segment is represented by a reference building.…”

Section: Background and Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are Internal Heat Gains Underestimated in Thermal Performance Evaluation of Buildings?

2014

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Improving the energy performance of buildings can contribute substantially to reducing energy demand. To evaluate the useful energy demand for space heating purposes from an energy economics perspective norm-based bottom-up models are applied that capture the energy-related characteristics of buildings. As electricity demand per household attributed to appliances and lighting has increased substantially in the EU27 during the last two decades (+50 %), the question arises whether the static norm-based approach is underestimating the contribution of internal heat gains to covering useful energy demand. To analyze the impact of dynamic internal heat gains in the residential sector, a bottom-up vintage model is applied that covers the EU27 building stock with a country-specific typology. This means the internal heat gains are time-dependent and heat dissipation is distinguished by appliances, lighting and residents. The analysis consists of two explorative scenarios for the residential building stock of EU27 until 2050. A reference scenario represents the static norm-based modelling of internal heat gains while the second scenario considers their dynamic development. The study reveals that the norm-based approach underestimates the contribution of internal heat gains to covering thermal heat demand. Comparing the countries throughout the EU27 climate zones indicates that on average the static and the dynamic share of internal heat gains differ in a range from 20-70 % by 2050. Especially in the case of nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB), e.g. with 30 kWh/m²*a useful energy demand, the internal heat gains are about 10-15 % higher using the dynamic approach compared to the norm-based approach.

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Renewable heating: Perspectives and the impact of policy instruments

Cited by 57 publications

References 13 publications

Bottom-up energy supply optimization of a national building stock

Bottom-up energy supply optimization of a national building stock

Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C

Are Internal Heat Gains Underestimated in Thermal Performance Evaluation of Buildings?

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