Remote Triggering of the Mw 6.9 Hokkaido Earthquake as a Result of the Mw 6.6 Indonesian Earthquake on September 11, 2008

Lin, Chu‐Hsing

doi:10.3319/tao.2012.01.12.01(t)

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Great earthquakes commonly generate both instantaneous and delayed seismicity at distances of hundreds to thousands of kilometres, where static stress changes are negligible, but these remote aftershocks usually have small magnitudes and often occur in volcanic or geothermal areas with quite different stress and frictional regimes [34][35][36] . A notable exception was a M w 6.9 earthquake in Japan that initiated during the passage of surface waves from a M w 6.6 event in Indonesia, confirming the potential for larger triggered earthquakes in compressive environments 37 . However, whether dynamic triggering also occurs locally (within 1 -2 fault lengths of the triggering event) is still controversial, in part because deconvolving static and transient stress changes within this area is challenging [38][39][40][41] .…”

Section: Triggering Mechanismmentioning

confidence: 90%

Limitations of rupture forecasting exposed by instantaneously triggered earthquake doublet

et al. 2016

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Earthquake hazard assessments and rupture forecasts are based on the potential length of seismic rupture and whether or not slip is arrested at fault segment boundaries. Such forecasts do not generally consider that one earthquake can trigger a second large event, near-instantaneously, at distances greater than a few kilometers. Here we present a geodetic and seismological analysis of a magnitude 7.1 intra-continental earthquake that occurred in Pakistan in 1997. We find that the earthquake, rather than a single event as hitherto assumed, was in fact an earthquake doublet: initial rupture on a shallow, blind 2 reverse fault was followed just 19 seconds later by a second rupture on a separate reverse fault 50 km away. Slip on the second fault increased the total seismic moment by half, and doubled both the combined event duration and the area of maximum ground shaking. We infer that static Coulomb stresses at the initiation location of the second earthquake were probably reduced as a result of the first. Instead, we suggest that a dynamic triggering mechanism is likely, although the responsible seismic wave phase is unclear. Our results expose a flaw in earthquake rupture forecasts that disregard cascading, multiple-fault ruptures of this type.Continental earthquakes typically rupture diffuse systems of shallow fault segments, delineated by bends, step-overs, gaps, and terminations. The largest events generally involve slip on multiple segments, and whether or not rupture is arrested by these boundaries can determine the difference between a moderate earthquake and a potentially devastating one.Compilations of historical surface ruptures suggest that boundary offsets of ~5 km are sufficient to halt earthquakes, regardless of the total rupture length 1,2 . This value is incorporated into modern, fault-based earthquake rupture forecasts such as the UCERF3 model for California 3,4 , whose goals include anticipating the maximum possible rupture length and magnitude of future earthquakes within known fault systems.However, if earthquakes could rapidly trigger failure of neighbouring faults or fault segments, at distances larger than ~5 km, then such scenario planning could be missing an important class of cascading, multiple-fault rupture. Here we exploit the combination of spatial 3 information captured by satellite deformation measurements and timing information of successive fault ruptures from seismology, to reveal how near-instantaneous, probably dynamic triggering may lead to sequential rupture of multiple large earthquakes separated by distances of 10s of kilometers.The destructive Harnai earthquake occurred on 27 February 1997 at 21:08 UTC (02:08 on 28February, local time) in the western Sulaiman mountains of Pakistan 5 (Figure 1a). Published source catalogues ascribe it a single, largely (85% 99%) double-couple focal mechanism with gentle ~N-dipping and steep ~S-dipping nodal planes and a moment magnitude M w of 7.0 7.1 (Supplementary Table 1 The south-eastern fringe ellipse is caused by slip on another NE-di...

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Section: Triggering Mechanismmentioning

confidence: 90%

Limitations of rupture forecasting exposed by instantaneously triggered earthquake doublet

et al. 2016

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“…Large earthquakes trigger very small earthquakes globally during passage of the seismic waves and during the following several hours to days 1-10 , but so far remote aftershocks of moment magnitude M $ 5.5 have not been identified 11 , with the lone exception of an M 5 6.9 quake remotely triggered by the surface waves from an M 5 6.6 quake 4,800 kilometres away 12 . The 2012 east Indian Ocean earthquake that had a moment magnitude of 8.6 is the largest strikeslip event ever recorded.…”

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confidence: 99%

The 11 April 2012 east Indian Ocean earthquake triggered large aftershocks worldwide

Pollitz

Stein

Sevilgen³

et al. 2012

Nature

168

143

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Large earthquakes trigger very small earthquakes globally during passage of the seismic waves and during the following several hours to days, but so far remote aftershocks of moment magnitude M ≥ 5.5 have not been identified, with the lone exception of an M = 6.9 quake remotely triggered by the surface waves from an M = 6.6 quake 4,800 kilometres away. The 2012 east Indian Ocean earthquake that had a moment magnitude of 8.6 is the largest strike-slip event ever recorded. Here we show that the rate of occurrence of remote M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes (>1,500 kilometres from the epicentre) increased nearly fivefold for six days after the 2012 event, and extended in magnitude to M ≤ 7. These global aftershocks were located along the four lobes of Love-wave radiation; all struck where the dynamic shear strain is calculated to exceed 10(-7) for at least 100 seconds during dynamic-wave passage. The other M ≥ 8.5 mainshocks during the past decade are thrusts; after these events, the global rate of occurrence of remote M ≥ 5.5 events increased by about one-third the rate following the 2012 shock and lasted for only two days, a weaker but possibly real increase. We suggest that the unprecedented delayed triggering power of the 2012 earthquake may have arisen because of its strike-slip source geometry or because the event struck at a time of an unusually low global earthquake rate, perhaps increasing the number of nucleation sites that were very close to failure.

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“…Pollitz et al (2012) suggested that the East Indian Ocean earthquake triggered large aftershocks worldwide. Lin (2012), argued that the Mw 6.6 Indonesian earthquake triggered the Mw 6.9 Hokkaido Earthquake on September 11, 2008. These observations, and many others, suggest that there is a systematic, and discernable global pattern, where an earthquake in one geographical area, is statistically linked to an earthquake in a remotely located area thousands of kilometers away.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pattern of strong earthquakes

Mizrahi

Shapira

Mizrahi

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The idea that one earthquake is associated with the occurrence of another earthquake is not new. In this study, we focus our attention on the relationships between the occurrence of a relatively strong earthquake in a certain seismogenic region and the occurrence of an earthquake of similar magnitude in a distant region. The complete catalog of seismic activity between 1904–2016 documents the subsequent events and over the years reveals a global, seismic activity pattern, (GSAP). This pattern is evident when an earthquake of magnitude M is followed within a relatively short period of weeks by an earthquake of a similar magnitude, and where the two events are located on latitudes of practically the same absolute value. Roughly 90% of all earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 and above follow the GSAP within a time window of less than a year. In addition, this high GSAP rate remains constant even after shuffling the dates of the earthquakes, several times. This is also evident in the current model of the tectonic plates and the frequency-magnitude relationships associated with each seismogenic zone. Subsequently, the observed seismic activity pattern is probably a statistical product and does not appear to relate to a physical causative process. At the same time, the significance of the GSAP, leads us to consider that the GSAP can be harnessed for statistical earthquake forecasting. This idea was, grounded and evaluated using synthetic earthquake catalogues where the success rates of forecasting an earthquake in catalog B followed the occurrence of an earthquake in catalog A. Additionally, the success rate of forecasting events in catalog B, according to the GSAP definitions are demonstrated to be statistically lower than the probabilities of a random occurrence in a similar magnitude earthquake which appears in ISC catalog B. These results were compared to actual cases. Arbitrarily selected pairs of seismogenic zones that are located on the same latitudes clearly demonstrate that the success rate of forecasting the earthquake occurrences that adhere to the GSAP are always higher than mere guesswork and therefor may be considered to offer a potential operational earthquake forecasting tool.

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Remote Triggering of the Mw 6.9 Hokkaido Earthquake as a Result of the Mw 6.6 Indonesian Earthquake on September 11, 2008

Cited by 8 publications

References 15 publications

Limitations of rupture forecasting exposed by instantaneously triggered earthquake doublet

Limitations of rupture forecasting exposed by instantaneously triggered earthquake doublet

The 11 April 2012 east Indian Ocean earthquake triggered large aftershocks worldwide

Pattern of strong earthquakes

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