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Abstract:Observational data collected during experiments, such as the planned Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE), are critical for evaluating and transitioning coupled fire-atmosphere models like WRF-SFIRE and WRF-SFIRE-CHEM into operational use. Historical meteorological data, representing typical weather conditions for the anticipated burn locations and times, have been processed to initialize and run a set of simulations representing the planned experimental burns. Based on an analysis of these numerical simulations, this paper provides recommendations on the experimental setup such as size and duration of the burns, and optimal sensor placement. New techniques are developed to initialize coupled fire-atmosphere simulations with weather conditions typical of the planned burn locations and times. The variation and sensitivity analysis of the simulation design to model parameters performed by repeated Latin Hypercube Sampling is used to assess the locations of the sensors. The simulations provide the locations for the measurements that maximize the expected variation of the sensor outputs with varying the model parameters.
Abstract:Observational data collected during experiments, such as the planned Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE), are critical for evaluating and transitioning coupled fire-atmosphere models like WRF-SFIRE and WRF-SFIRE-CHEM into operational use. Historical meteorological data, representing typical weather conditions for the anticipated burn locations and times, have been processed to initialize and run a set of simulations representing the planned experimental burns. Based on an analysis of these numerical simulations, this paper provides recommendations on the experimental setup such as size and duration of the burns, and optimal sensor placement. New techniques are developed to initialize coupled fire-atmosphere simulations with weather conditions typical of the planned burn locations and times. The variation and sensitivity analysis of the simulation design to model parameters performed by repeated Latin Hypercube Sampling is used to assess the locations of the sensors. The simulations provide the locations for the measurements that maximize the expected variation of the sensor outputs with varying the model parameters.
Background: Most artificial intelligence (AI) systems are restricted to solving a pre-defined task, thus limiting their generalizability to unselected datasets. Anomaly detection relieves this shortfall by flagging all pathologies as deviations from a learned norm. Here, we investigate whether diagnostic accuracy and reporting times can be improved by an anomaly detection tool for head computed tomography (CT), tailored to provide patient-level triage and voxel-based highlighting of pathologies. Methods: Four neuroradiologists with 1–10 years of experience each investigated a set of 80 routinely acquired head CTs containing 40 normal scans and 40 scans with common pathologies. In a random order, scans were investigated with and without AI-predictions. A 4-week wash-out period between runs was included to prevent a reminiscence effect. Performance metrics for identifying pathologies, reporting times, and subjectively assessed diagnostic confidence were determined for both runs. Results: AI-support significantly increased the share of correctly classified scans (normal/pathological) from 309/320 scans to 317/320 scans (p = 0.0045), with a corresponding sensitivity, specificity, negative- and positive- predictive value of 100%, 98.1%, 98.2% and 100%, respectively. Further, reporting was significantly accelerated with AI-support, as evidenced by the 15.7% reduction in reporting times (65.1 ± 8.9 s vs. 54.9 ± 7.1 s; p < 0.0001). Diagnostic confidence was similar in both runs. Conclusion: Our study shows that AI-based triage of CTs can improve the diagnostic accuracy and accelerate reporting for experienced and inexperienced radiologists alike. Through ad hoc identification of normal CTs, anomaly detection promises to guide clinicians towards scans requiring urgent attention.
Measuring wildland fuels is at the core of fire science, but many established field methods are not useful for ecosystems characterized by complex surface vegetation. A recently developed sub-meter 3D method applied to southeastern U.S. longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) communities captures critical heterogeneity, but similar to any destructive sampling measurement, it relies on separate plots for calculating loading and consumption. In this study, we investigated how bulk density differed by 10-cm height increments among three dominant fuel types, tested predictions of consumption based on fuel type, height, and volume, and compared this with other field measurements. The bulk density changed with height for the herbaceous and woody litter fuels (p < 0.001), but live woody litter was consistent across heights (p > 0.05). Our models predicted mass well based on volume and height for herbaceous (RSE = 0.00911) and woody litter (RSE = 0.0123), while only volume was used for live woody (R2 = 0.44). These were used to estimate consumption based on our volume-mass predictions, linked pre- and post-fire plots by fuel type, and showed similar results for herbaceous and woody litter when compared to paired plots. This study illustrates an important non-destructive alternative to calculating mass and estimating fuel consumption across vertical volume distributions at fine scales.
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