Relocation of bioclimatic suitability of Portuguese grapevine varieties under climate change scenarios

Abstract

IntroductionClimate change has been driving warming trends and changes in precipitation patterns and regimes throughout Europe. Future projections indicate a continuation of these trends in the next decades. This situation is challenging the sustainability of viniculture and, thus, significant efforts towards adaptation should be then carried out by local winegrowers.MethodEcological Niche Models were built, using the ensemble modelling approach, to estimate the bioclimatic suitability of four main wine-producing European countries, namely France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, in the recent past (1989–2005), for the cultivation of twelve Portuguese grape varieties. The models were then used to project the bioclimatic suitability to two future periods (2021– 2050 and 2051–2080) to better understand the potential shifts related to climate change (modeled after Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). The models were obtained with the modeling platform BIOMOD2, using four bioclimatic indices, namely the “Huglin Index”, the “Cool Night index”, the “Growing Season Precipitation index”, and the “Temperature Range during Ripening index” as predictor variables, as well as the current locations of the chosen grape varieties in Portugal.ResultsAll models performed with high statistical accuracy (AUC > 0.9) and were able to discriminate several suitable bioclimatic areas for the different grape varieties, in and around where they are currently located but also in other parts of the study area. The distribution of the bioclimatic suitability changed, however, when looking at future projections. For both climatic scenarios, projected bioclimatic suitability suffered a considerable shift to the north of Spain and France. In some cases, bioclimatic suitability also moved towards areas of higher elevation. Portugal and Italy barely retained any of the initially projected varietal areas. These shifts were mainly due to the overall rise in thermal accumulation and lower accumulated precipitation in the southern regions projected for the future.ConclusionEnsemble models of Ecological Niche Models were shown to be valid tools for winegrowers who want to adapt to a changing climate. The long-term sustainability of viniculture in southern Europe will most likely have to go through a process of mitigation of the effects of increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation.

Bio-Dealcoholization of Wines: Can Yeast Make Lighter Wines?

“…This demonstrates that, as stated earlier, due to the strong relationship between viticulture and climate, fluctuations in temperature and frost events (early or late frosts) can directly impact grape production and the quality of the wine produced [3,6,18]. Increasing temperatures lead to premature grape ripening, culminating in an undesirable rise in sugar levels and a decrease in organic acids and phenolic compounds.…”

“…Climate change, primarily driven by anthropogenic influence, induces significant transformations in the Earth's system [1,2], including temperature extremes and modifications in precipitation patterns [3,4]. The latest Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [5] predicts a continued rise in global surface temperature and a decrease in annual precipitation across emission scenarios, with intensifying and more frequent extreme events globally [4,6].…”

Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Geographical Distribution Patterns of Luculia pinceana Hook. f. since the Last Glacial Maximum

“…At smaller scales, interspecies interactions predominantly influence species distribution patterns, with biotic factors contributing more at local scales and topographic factors becoming more significant at the landscape scale, while climatic variables are key in determining habitat suitability at regional and larger scales [35,36]. SDMs have been applied in distribution prediction studies for various taxa, including animals [37], plants [38], insects [39], marine organisms [40], lichens and mosses [41], and viruses [42], often employed in fields like invasive plant risk identification, animal habitat prediction, and pest control, predominantly using single-model approaches, especially MaxEnt [43]. Depending on the algorithm, there are different types of SDMs, and their applicability varies with species and the number of distribution points [44,45], suggesting that no single perfect model algorithm suits all niche characteristics [46].…”

The Spatiotemporal Evolution of the Growing Degree Days (GDD) Agroclimatic Index for the Viticulture over the Northern Mediterranean Basin

“…Additionally, a wide range of agroclimatic indices have been developed to establish a connection between the atmospheric and agricultural environments on a climatic timescale [37][38][39][40]. These indices often quantify the thermal environment during crop growth making them vital for applications on various agricultural aspects such as the evaluation of agrometeorological conditions and related trends for staple crops [41][42][43][44], the estimation of the agrometeorological requirements on the plant phenology's principal stages [45], the assessment and projections on agroclimatic suitability as on the evolution of viticultural zoning [46][47][48][49], the prediction of abiotic and biotic hazards in fruit production [50], for yield-production prediction [51,52], but even for policy and decision making and the implementation of adaptation strategies [53][54][55].…”