Relict populations of Araucaria angustifolia will be isolated, poorly protected, and unconnected under climate and land-use change in Brazil

Tagliari, Mario Muniz; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Alves, Jonatas; Silveira, Thiago César Lima; Peroni, Nivaldo

doi:10.1007/s10531-021-02270-z

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…We also revisited areas where this human-plant interaction was previously described (see Adan et al 2016;Tagliari and Peroni 2018;Quinteiro et al 2019). Historically, the extent of the Araucaria Forest is distributed at highlands plateaus along altitudes above 500 m (de Souza et al 2009), especially in Southern Brazil (states of Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul) and relict occurrence patches in Southeastern Brazil, through the borders of the States of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro (Quinteiro et al 2019;Tagliari et al 2021b).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To estimate the potential losses due to climate change over the Araucaria Forest System we selected the latest peer-reviewed studies that have shown the impacts of future climate change over araucaria forest (Table 1). We combined the studies' projections for 2070 (Castro et al 2019;Wilson et al 2019;Marchioro et al 2020;Tagliari et al 2021b) over the potential losses of climatically suitable areas ( ) for Araucaria in the future under two climate scenarios -Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 -to propose a baseline of "climate change loss". These three studies selected both RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 because it became a common practice of species modelling approaches once they represent an optimistic (RCP 4.5) or a pessimistic (RCP 8.5) CO 2 emission scenario (Riahi et al 2011;Thomson et al 2011).…”

Section: Quantifying Afs Disruption Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…potassium, phosphorus, and manganese; Barbosa et al 2019). As a typical regional resource, which guarantees both economic and dietary security of local human groups, by strengthening traditional use and management of local food resources we also might preserve local keystone species (Tagliari et al 2021b). Also, it values the maintenance and aesthetic connection of peoples' cultures, and how human groups perceive and incorporate the sense of belonging with the surrounding environment (Tam and Chan, 2007).…”

Section: Food Security and Sociocultural Interconnection With The Ara...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To halt biodiversity losses the creation of protected areas is a cornerstone strategy (Geldmann et al 2013). The Araucaria Forest remnants, although, are still poorly encompassed by the existing protected area network, as recent studies showed that less than 10% of the species' projected distribution falls within an existing protected area rather in the present or under future climate change scenarios (Castro et al 2019;Wilson et al 2019;Marchioro et al 2020;Tagliari et al 2021b). From almost 1500 BP until late 19 th century, Araucaria Forest's natural extent covered an estimated area of 200 000 km² spanning over Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay (Nodari 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Disrupting a socioecological system: how Traditional Ecological Knowledge could be the key to preserve Araucaria Forest in Brazil under climate change?

Tagliari

Bogoni

Blanco

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Socioecological systems (SES) hinge on human groups and ecosystems, promoting interdependence and resilience to environmental disturbances. Climate change effects propagate from organism to biomes, likely influencing SES. In southern Brazil, Araucaria Forest is a typical SES due to the historical interaction between humans and biodiversity. We thus aimed to evaluate empirically and theoretically how climate change could disrupt this system by interviewing 97 smallholders and assessing their Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK). We evaluated and measured: (i) socioeconomic impact of araucaria’s nut-like seed (pinhão) trade; (ii) ethnoecological knowledge about climate change; and (iii) generated an ecosystem services network. We projected these empiric data with a projected loss of 50-70% of the Araucaria Forest due to climate change to quantify the risks of the potential disruption of this socioecological system. We found evidence that to avoid the disruption of the Araucaria Forests is paramount to value TEK holders, safeguard the historical socioecological interaction, and promote non-mutually exclusive measures in an integrative response to maintain the Araucaria Forests resilient to future disturbances.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Quantifying Afs Disruption Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Food Security and Sociocultural Interconnection With The Ara...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Disrupting a socioecological system: how Traditional Ecological Knowledge could be the key to preserve Araucaria Forest in Brazil under climate change?

Tagliari

Bogoni

Blanco

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Many fossil lineages occur today in refugial areas characterized by high biodiversity and endemism (Rossetto & Kooyman, 2021). Predicting the likelihood of survival of known fossil lineages in contemporary environmental conditions and their future distributions in relation to climate change remains a formidable challenge (Ivory et al, 2019; Tagliari et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gondwanan survivor lineages and the high‐risk biogeography of Anthropocene Southeast Asia

Kooyman

Ivory

Benfield

et al. 2022

J of Sytematics Evolution

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The Southeast Asian rainforest region is extremely complex and biodiverse. Fossils have shown that paleo-Antarctic rainforest lineages (PARLs) now extant in Asia tracked the ever-wet conditions needed to survive and diversify through deep time. However, the threat of future climate change to the remaining rainforest and PARLs in Southeast Asia has yet to be evaluated to set conservation priorities. We first quantified the woody-genus floristic relationships of Southeast Asian Island Groups by vetting and analyzing recent compilations of bioregional species data. We then evaluated the contributions to community assembly of woody fossil lineages and Island Group relationships to environmental gradients. To better understand climatic constraints of fossil lineage distributions and forecast distributions under projected future climate, we used exemplar living woody PARLs, including two angiosperms and two gymnosperms. Generalized linear models were used to project potential distributions under future climate pathways that assume no reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. The floristic analyses highlighted strong similarities among Island Groups in the ever-wet forest areas of Malesia, where PARLs are often concentrated. Ordination outliers represented more seasonal locations. Species distribution models showed that potential future distributions of ancient lineages are constrained by increasing rainfall seasonality and higher seasonal temperatures, with significant differences among exemplar genera. Notably, potential distributions often mapped onto de facto inaccessible areas, where forest clearing and the ubiquitous marine dispersal barriers that characterize the region will drastically inhibit potential relocation. These realities gravely threaten paleo-conservation values and contemporary rainforest community assembly processes in Southeast Asia.

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Disrupting a socio-ecological system: could traditional ecological knowledge be the key to preserving the Araucaria Forest in Brazil under climate change?

et al. 2023

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Relict populations of Araucaria angustifolia will be isolated, poorly protected, and unconnected under climate and land-use change in Brazil

Cited by 13 publications

References 75 publications

Disrupting a socioecological system: how Traditional Ecological Knowledge could be the key to preserve Araucaria Forest in Brazil under climate change?

Disrupting a socioecological system: how Traditional Ecological Knowledge could be the key to preserve Araucaria Forest in Brazil under climate change?

Gondwanan survivor lineages and the high‐risk biogeography of Anthropocene Southeast Asia

Disrupting a socio-ecological system: could traditional ecological knowledge be the key to preserving the Araucaria Forest in Brazil under climate change?

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