Reliable real-time estimates of the euro-area output gap

Burlón, Lorenzo; D’Imperio, Paolo

doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103191

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…42 It is worth emphasizing that "expected values" are not forecasted values, but the figures that, everything equal, would be observed because of the fiscal policy measures adopted in 2020. 43 A model-based measure of the output gap is in fact a natural complement to the quantification of the contribution of fiscal measures with respect to a counterfactual scenario (see, e.g., Burlon and D'Imperio, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Fiscal Response to the Italian COVID-19 Crisis: A Counterfactual Analysis

Bartolomeo

D’Imperio²,

Felici

2021

SSRN Journal

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Fiscal Response to the Italian COVID-19 Crisis: A Counterfactual Analysis

Bartolomeo

D’Imperio²,

Felici

2021

SSRN Journal

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“…The traditional methodologies used to estimate potential output are based on aggregate time series, mainly the national accounts. The most popular methods adopted by international institutions and central banks are either statistical filters or more complex approaches, such as those based on aggregate production functions, on semi-structural Bayesian unobserved component methods, as well as on dynamic factor or dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (see for example Havik et al, 2014;De Masi, 1997;Alichi et al, 2019;Edge and Rudd, 2016;Anderton et al, 2014;Vetlov et al, 2011;Chalaux and Guillemette, 2019;Bassanetti et al, 2010;Busetti and Caivano, 2016;Burlon and D'Imperio, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Firm Characteristics and Potential Output: A Growth Accounting Approach

2021

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We apply a growth accounting approach to estimate the contribution to potential output growth in Italy by firms with different characteristics. We do so by exploiting time series obtained by aggregating individual firm data. Results show that during the double-dip recession smaller firms provided the strongest negative contribution to potential output growth, while the recovery was driven by big ones. Young firms always give a positive contribution. Growth within sectors is the main driver of the dynamic of both aggregate trend total factor productivity and the capital labor ratio. Looking at sectoral composition effects, between 2014 and 2018 sectors with lower capital deepening have increased their share in the economy, holding back the aggregate figures.

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“… 54 A model-based measure of the output gap is in fact a natural complement to the quantification of the contribution of fiscal measures with respect to a counterfactual scenario (see, e.g., Burlon and D'Imperio, 2020 ). …”

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confidence: 99%