Reliability prediction of pipes and valves

Abstract

A methodology for predicting the reliability of pipes and valves and for assessing the impact of testing and inspection policy on the safe life of a component is described. The method is based on the stress‐strength interference model and enables a combination of physical models and engineering experience to be used to estimate means, variances and associated uncertainties in the life of a component. Particular attention is paid to modelling failures arising from underlying degradation processes. Bayesian routines are used to update the model parameters and to reduce uncertainties using inspection, monitoring or test data. The paper describes the principles of the method together with examples related to subsea gate valves and pipelines.

Reliability prediction of helicopter transmission systems using stress–strength interference with underlying damage accumulation

“…The reliability prediction technique adopted in this research is based on the stress-strength interference (SSI) method [9], applied by various specialists [4,10]. Failure is considered to be an event which occurs when a failure-inducing parameter exceeds the allowable limit, causing failure to occur.…”

“…The probability of failure, represented by the intersection of the damage distribution with the damage limit, increases with time as the device ages. The characteristic life (or safe life) of the system is represented by the time at which the probability of failure reaches some target probability of failure [10] as shown in Figure 2(d).…”