Reliability of a Power System With High Penetration of Renewables: A Scenario-Based Study

Abstract

Reliability is a crucial consideration in the expansion of generation or transmission in a bulk power system, especially in a power grid with a high penetration of renewables. Reliability indices, such as loss of load probability (LOLP), are generally evaluated to determine the adequacy of a bulk power system in the future. When a Monte-Carlo simulation is conducted to evaluate the LOLP, the computational time is long because chronological time-series data are involved. This work proposes a novel scenario-based method for studying the LOLP in a bulk power system with a high penetration of renewables. Scenarios are generated by aggregating Markov states of hourly loads, photovoltaic power generations and wind power generations. The power flow result in each scenario is examined to ensure power balance among demand, supply and losses, so the LOLP can be obtained. This novel scenario-based method is more efficient than the traditional chronological time-series approach because the number of considered scenarios is much smaller than the number of considered time-series cases. A set of realistic data regarding Taiwan power system, consisting of 2078 buses associated with a peak load of 39.178 GW, wind power of 6.938GW and photovoltaic power of 20 GW in 2025 is used to validate the proposed method.INDEX TERMS Loss of load probability, Markov model, Monte-Carlo simulation, renewables, reliability.

Impact of integration of renewable energies and energy efficiency on the reliability of the national electricity grid

“…The most widely used reliability indices are probabilistic criteria of production-consumption adequacy (without taking the network into account). There are three main types of reliability indices [14]: − Force outage rate (FOR): The calculation of the FOR index initially applies to a simple two-state model (available/unavailable) which is only valid for evaluating the reliability of one or more devices over a very long period of use − Loss of load probability (LOLP): this is the oldest and most basic of the criteria. It defines the probability of not satisfying the demand over a given period [15] − Loss of load expectation (LOLE): it is defined as the mathematical expectation of the number of hours (resp.…”

“…These results in a threat to the stability of the system and the non-satisfaction of the request at some point. Therefore, we deduce that the reliability of the system follows a power law, which is given by ( 14), 𝑦 = 𝑎 𝑥 −𝑏 (14) with 0.0025 < a < 0.01 and 1.04 < b < 1.2. As electrical energy is not easily storable and to meet national demand, it is necessary to invest in storage means to ensure the security of electrical energy supply and to strengthen interconnections with neighboring countries to ensure the N-1 relief to any major incident in the transport network.…”

Perbaikan Keandalan PLTU Tembilahan dengan Penambahan Kapasitas Pembangkit

“…Reliability indices, such as LOLP, are commonly evaluated to determine the future adequacy of bulk power systems [22]. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the prediction of peak load increase for the next five years.…”