Reliability estimation for one-shot systems with zero component test failures

Abstract

& CONCLUSIONSTests for one-shot systems such as missiles and rockets are very expensive. In order to design an efficient test plan to demonstrate the required reliability in the final system test, system reliability should be studied in advance. Before the final system tests, many subsystem level tests usually have already been conducted by customers and manufacturers. Therefore, the system reliability can be estimated using the information obtained from these tests before the final system test. Due to the highly reliable nature of one-shot systems, it is very unlikely to observe many failures, even at the subsystem level tests. To accurately estimate the system reliability with few failures or even without failures is very challenging. A lot of research has been done on how to estimate the system reliability and its confidence intervals from its subsystem test data. However, most of them require failures at the sub-level tests. When there are no failures, these methods do not work.In this paper, a flexible and practical method is designed to estimate the system reliability and its confidence bounds when there are few or no failures during the subsystem tests. This method can be applied to series, parallel and complex systems. The estimated system reliability information is then used to design an efficient test plan for the final system reliability demonstration test. A case study shows that the proposed method is very efficient and accurate when compared with existing methods and simulation results.

A new analytical model for reliability analysis of a launch vehicle system with limited test data

“…In fact, an unfavorable prior can actually have an opposite effect on the reliability demonstration. 6 It neither considers the evolution of different systems and the associated reliability improvements nor the similarities of the new system with the pedigree system. 1 The subject experts find it difficult to define the prior distribution, which needs in-depth statistical knowledge.…”

“…where n is the number of tests carried out, r is the number of failures, R is the one-sided lower bound for the reliability, and C is the confidence level. 6,7 In this paper, reliability assessment is made at a confidence level of 60% (C ¼ 0.6), in accordance with the guide to the probability of failure analysis for expendable launch vehicles by Federal Aviation Administration. 8 This acts as a standard reference when comparing the reliability of different launch vehicle systems.…”

Reliability Modeling and Analysis of One-Shot Systems

“…It can be noted here that (2) will be used when there are no failures and (1) otherwise. By using (2) above, reference [3] were able to get the mean and variance of the reliability of the component following the beta-binomial distribution which are:…”

پایش وضعیت و نگهداری از قابلیت اطمینان سامانه های تک کاره

“…xO=iDU= xDWPo |=yxO=O R= xOt; CUO x@ G}=Dv R= Ov=wD@ xm OwW xDiQo Q=m x@ |}xw}W u}UB`} RwD w u}W}B`} RwD R= xO=iDU= pmWt u}=`iQ |= Q@ |O=yvW}B VwQ "Ovm x@ xvwtv |xR=Ov= u} QDtm =@ u=wD|t ? }DQD u}O@ "CU= u} R}@ VwQ`w[wt xm CU= u}=`iQ |= Q@ R}v [4] Qvq w Oww "O}UQ xrwtLt u=v}t]= C}r@=k |= Q@ |@ wN Cw=[k "OvDiQo Q=m x@ = Q u} R}@ VwQ pmWt |=yxv=t=U u=v}t]= C}r@=k u} R}@ VwQ R= xO=iDU= =@ [5] Vv=Q=mty w ui 'p=tQv u}W}B`} RwD xU =yu; "OvQw; CUO x@ Qta ?=DW uwtR; s=Hv= =@ = Q xQ=mlD TBU w OvOQm xO=iDU= u=v}t]= C}r@=k w CUmW MQv u}tND |= Q@ = Q =D@ w |}=tv =yv; xm |}xH}Dv "OvOQm |HvUQ=@Da= w xU}=kt wrQ=m Cvwt |R=Ux}@W =@ = Q G}=Dv xU R= s=Om Qy ?=NDv= OvQ=O |i=m C=aq]= =yxO=O |Dkw xm CU= u}= OvDiQo |DL =} sm =yCUmW |=yxO=O xm |v=tR =t= OQ=O |y@=Wt OQmrta q=@`}RwD QDy@ p=tQv |v}W}B`} RwD =@ u} R}@ VwQ OyO|t u=Wv |R=Ux}@W G}=Dv CU= QiY "CU= xvwtv |xR=Ov= x@ =yQDt=Q=B u}tND xm OvO=O u=Wv sy [6] Vv=Q=mty w uwUv=O |xar=]t "OvQDT=UL OvW=@ QDlJwm =yxO=O xJ Qy XwYN x@ OvDUy T=UL =iO CQ= Rw QO =ylWwt w =y?t@ u=v}t]= C}r@=k u}tND x@ \w@Qt Qo}O \@DQt ltm u} R}@ VwQ R= sy =yu; w CiQo s=Hv= [7] KrYt w TD} \UwD xm CU=}r=QDU= "OvDiQo O=OaD xm|v=tR = Q xQ=mlD |=yxv=t=U u=v}t]= C}r@=k [8] Vv=Q=mty w =wo u=v}t]= C}r@=k =yu; "OvOQm |UQQ@ 'OvDUy QiY x@ l}ORv =} QiY =yCUmW |=y|UQR=@ w V}=B CLD Cr=L wO QO w C=a]k u=v}t]= C}r@=k ltmx@ = Q xv=t=U |UQQ@ =Hl} w ?QNt CQwY x@ xv=t=U u=v}t]= C}r@=k xm |Dr=L R}v w ?QNtQ}e |xR=Ov= u}}aD |= Q@ = Q VwQ wO u}@ |Dw=iD|@ RQt TBU "OvOQm xU}=kt w x@U=Lt OwW "OvOQw; CUO x@ 'OvQ}o@ Q= Qk C=a]k uwtR; OQwt O}=@ xm |}xvwtv |=t}B=wy QO xDiQ Q=m x@ l}D=twD= nviD u=v}t]= C}r@=k [9] T}r=w w QDv} w xQ=mlD VN@ wO pt=W nviD u}= "OvOQm pOt 1 = RVD; |=ynvWi =@ = Q zpl-20 = RVD; |=ynvWi O=OaD w ?= QN |=yxrwro O=OaD p}rLD w x} RHD =@ =yu; "CU= Q}F -=D nviD u=v}t]= C}r@=k Q@ xvwoJ xQ=mlD C=a]k u=v}t]= C}r@=k xm OvO=O u=Wv xLrU= |xO}J}B |xv=t=U u=v}t]= C}r@=k u}vJsy [10] T}r=w w |mwm "OQ=Po|t xO=iDU= u; R= nviD |L=Q] |R=Uxv}y@ |= Q@ w |UQQ@ 'OQ=O xQ=mlD C=a]k xm '= Q "OvOQm |=yuwtR; xm |v=tR = Q xQ=mlD |=yxv=t=U C=a]k |Q=Oyov w V}=B [11] |=@w}v C=a]k |mD w |ywQo |=y|UQR=@ |= Q@ |rOt w OQm |UQQ@ 'OvDU}v j}kO ?QNtQ}e C= R}yHD |}xQwO uwtR; [12] Rv}DQ=t "OQm O=yvW}B |}=tvCUQO |xv}W}@ VwQ ltm =@ u=Wv w OQm |UQQ@ 'OvwW|t |Q=Oyov Q=@v= QO |vqw] COt |= Q@ xm '= Q |m}vwQDmr= [13] u= Q=mty w nv=w "OQm x@U=Lt u=wD|t = Q =yu; u=v}t]= C}r@=k xvwoJ xm O=O |UQQ@ xv=Q}oW}B Cv l} =@ = Q u=v}t]= C}r@=k Q@ |vD@t C= Q}taD w |Q=Oyov R}v "OvOQm C=k}kLD R= |NQ xa]k u=v}t]= C}r@=k`} RwD "3"2…”