Reliability-based inspection planning in view of both crack initiation and propagation

Zou, Guang Ping; Banisoleiman, Kian; González, Arturo

doi:10.1201/9781315210469-340

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…S-N method has been widely adopted in designing structures against fatigue, including both deterministic design methods [7] and probabilistic design methods [8]. The fracture mechanics (FM) method has been used to develop probabilistic models to assess fatigue reliability [9][10][11], to update inspection plans [12][13][14][15][16][17], and to develop cost-effective inspection & maintenance plans for existing structures [1,[18][19][20][21]. The studies address almost exclusively either fatigue design issues with little quantitative analysis in operational maintenance or address maintenance issues based on given design plans or existing structures.…”

Section: Figure 1: Lifetime Safety Decisions and Measures Against Fatiguementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, an inspection result of no detection provides additional information which can be utilized to update failure probability and lifetime fatigue reliability . Normally, there are different amount of changes in and , as a result of the additional information collected at different time 1 , 2 , ⋯ , [16].…”

Section: Decision Variables In Maintenance Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A holistic approach to risk-based decision on inspection and design of fatigue-sensitive structures

Zou

Faber

González

et al. 2020

Engineering Structures

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Design and operation of large welded structural systems (e.g. ship and offshore structures) are challenging due to numerous fatigue-sensitive details, limited available budgets, uncertainties in fatigue damages, inspection & maintenance activities, etc. Traditionally, fatigue design and maintenance planning have been almost disconnected, which restricts coherent decision-making and optimum safety management. Structural design optimization, without quantitatively incorporating the effects of operational maintenance, can hardly result in a structural plan that is optimum in terms of life cycle costs. Also, if the design of a structure is not optimum, maintenance optimization alone cannot yield a really optimum maintenance plan. As operational inspections and maintenance are essential, there are merits to utilize their effects to structural design and meanwhile optimize them at the initial design stage when impacts of decisions are greater. This paper proposes a riskbased approach to holistic decision-making enveloping decisions and uncertainties affecting design, inspection and maintenance of fatigue-sensitive components. Decisions variables in structural scantling and operational maintenance are obtained holistically at the structural design stage by risk based optimization, based on quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of both structural scantling and maintenance interventions. Optimum fatigue reliability level is also obtained, informed by the effects of uncertainties and failure consequences. The method captures combined benefits of structural scantling and operational maintenance to fatigue reliability and risk mitigation and achieves optimum resource utilization and life cycle cost reduction. Advantages of the proposed method have been demonstrated via a numerical example, In comparison to alternative methods.

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Section: Figure 1: Lifetime Safety Decisions and Measures Against Fatiguementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Decision Variables In Maintenance Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

A holistic approach to risk-based decision on inspection and design of fatigue-sensitive structures

Zou

Faber

González

et al. 2020

Engineering Structures

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show abstract

“…The development of technical diagnostic tools made it possible to monitor the most dangerous damage of the fatigue type. This led to the emergence of algorithms Reliability Based Optimization (RBO) [7][8][9]. In them, the reliability function is estimated based on the probability of defect detection.…”

Section: Amalgamating Of the Reliability Indicators: What Is Meant Wmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rulesfor Amalgamating the Reliability of Elements of Powertrain Systems at Maintenance

Belodedenko¹,

Hanush²,

Hrechanyi³

2019

JMEA

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The amalgamation procedure is actual when using structural methods of reliability. This may apply as the case of the action of a complex of damaging processes on a structural element and the case of the action of a certain damaging process on a system of elements. Classical methods of reliability are poorly adapted for powertrain mechanical systems with a series structural scheme of elements subjected to the gradual influence of several degradation processes. The problem of amalgamation of individual indicators is exacerbated at the stage of operation when diagnosing the technical state of the mechanical system. The application of the classical rule of amalgamation by multiplying the probabilities of survival leads to the effect of over-maintenance. New rules of amalgamation have been developed, which deprive the assessment of the reliability of excessive conservatism. The complex index of the technical condition is offered-the resource safety index (RSI). Its use determines the remaining lifetime. The algorithm for searching the RSI contains an assessment of the criticality of the failure. The search of RSI under the influence of the complex of damaging processes on the element of the powertrain system is demonstrated. The efficiency of the RSI method is shown by the example of the reliability assessment of aircraft bolts. Application of the RSI method increases the guaranteed lifetime by 4-10 times compared with traditional methods.

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“…in offshore engineering, nuclear engineering and bridge engineering, etc. [8][9][10][11] . By integration of probabilistic modelling with life cycle cost modelling, cost based probabilistic optimization approaches have also been developed in support of rational and optimal maintenance decision-making under uncertainty 5,12,13 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Probabilistic modelling and reliability methods have been applied to tackle with uncertainties consistently in maintenance modelling and optimisation of structural assets, for example, in offshore engineering, nuclear engineering and bridge engineering, etc. [8][9][10][11] By integration of probabilistic modelling with life cycle cost modelling, cost based probabilistic optimisation approaches have also been developed in support of rational and optimal maintenance decision-making under uncertainty. 5,12,13 A limitation of these probabilistic optimisation approaches is that a decision rule need to be set up in advance and then optimisation is performed on the maintenance strategy defined by the decision rule.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian maintenance decision optimisation based on computing the information value from condition inspections

Zou

Banisoleiman

González

2021

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O:

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A challenge in marine and offshore engineering is structural integrity management (SIM) of assets such as ships, offshore structures, mooring systems, etc. Due to harsh marine environments, fatigue cracking and corrosion present persistent threats to structural integrity. SIM for such assets is complicated because of a very large number of rewelded plates and joints, for which condition inspections and maintenance are difficult and expensive tasks. Marine SIM needs to take into account uncertainty in material properties, loading characteristics, fatigue models, detection capacities of inspection methods, etc. Optimising inspection and maintenance strategies under uncertainty is therefore vital for effective SIM and cost reductions. This paper proposes a value of information (VoI) computation and Bayesian decision optimisation (BDO) approach to optimal maintenance planning of typical fatigue-prone structural systems under uncertainty. It is shown that the approach can yield optimal maintenance strategies reliably in various maintenance decision making problems or contexts, which are characterized by different cost ratios. It is also shown that there are decision making contexts where inspection information doesn’t add value, and condition based maintenance (CBM) is not cost-effective. The CBM strategy is optimal only in the decision making contexts where VoI > 0. The proposed approach overcomes the limitation of CBM strategy and highlights the importance of VoI computation (to confirm VoI > 0) before adopting inspections and CBM.

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Reliability-based inspection planning in view of both crack initiation and propagation

Cited by 4 publications

References 11 publications

A holistic approach to risk-based decision on inspection and design of fatigue-sensitive structures

A holistic approach to risk-based decision on inspection and design of fatigue-sensitive structures

Rulesfor Amalgamating the Reliability of Elements of Powertrain Systems at Maintenance

Bayesian maintenance decision optimisation based on computing the information value from condition inspections

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