Reliability analysis of a complex system with hybrid structures and multi-level dependent life metrics

Yang, Lechang; Wang, Pidong; Wang, Qiang; Bi, Sifeng; Peng, Rui; Behrensdorf, Jasper; Beer, Michael

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2021.107469

Cited by 18 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 55 publications

(71 reference statements)

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“…The structural reliability assessment work is mainly based on the stress-strength interference theory framework, and the reliability assessment result of the structure is obtained by determining the probability of occurrence of the stress and strength interference zone. [13][14][15] Due to the large safety margin in the structural design of the CRDM, even if the high scattering of stress and strength is fully considered, there is no interference zone, that is, the reliability is 1, which is obviously not consistent with the reality. As the CRDM operates under high temperature, high pressure and strong irradiation environment, the strength of its key operating parts will inevitably deteriorate as the service time goes by.…”

Section: F I G U R E 1 Structural Illustration Of Crdmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Degradation‐based reliability analysis of magnetic jack type control rod drive mechanism

Chen

et al. 2022

Quality & Reliability Eng

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The magnetic jack type control rod drive mechanism (CRDM) is the key actuator in the nuclear power plant reactor. The latch assembly of the CRDM acts as the execution component to lift, insert, and release the control rod assembly to accomplish the reactor startup, power regulation, and shutdown, etc. The accuracy and the timeliness of CRDM latch assembly action will directly determine the safety operation of the reactor. Considering the time variation of the structural strength deterioration in the latch assembly, the time‐dependent reliability of CRDM's lift action is evaluated based on the Gamma degradation process. P‐S‐N curve is introduced to model the shape function and the scale parameter of the Gamma process. The stress subjected to the key structure of the latch assembly is calculated by a multi‐physics field coupling simulation scheme with utilization of MATLAB to transfer simulated results between the ANSYS and ADAMS software. Finally, the time‐dependent reliability is calculated based on the Monte Carlo simulation method. In this paper, the lift pole thread of the assembly is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

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Section: F I G U R E 1 Structural Illustration Of Crdmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Degradation‐based reliability analysis of magnetic jack type control rod drive mechanism

Chen

et al. 2022

Quality & Reliability Eng

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“…They also expanded the concept to a broader multi-level hierarchical structure by employing a more effective method of pooling inconsistent priors. Yang et al [46] proposed a Bayesian reliability approach for complex systems with dependent life metrics and developed a likelihood decomposition method to convert the overall likelihood into a product of explicit and implicit evidence-based likelihood functions. As of now, only a limited number of research papers considering hybrid systems based on ORTs have been published.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Parameter Estimation Based on Censored Data under Partially Accelerated Life Testing for Hybrid Systems due to Unknown Failure Causes

Kamal¹

2022

Computer Modeling in Engineering &Amp; Sciences

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In general, simple subsystems like series or parallel are integrated to produce a complex hybrid system. The reliability of a system is determined by the reliability of its constituent components. It is often extremely difficult or impossible to get specific information about the component that caused the system to fail. Unknown failure causes are instances in which the actual cause of system failure is unknown. On the other side, thanks to current advanced technology based on computers, automation, and simulation, products have become incredibly dependable and trustworthy, and as a result, obtaining failure data for testing such exceptionally reliable items have become a very costly and time-consuming procedure. Therefore, because of its capacity to produce rapid and adequate failure data in a short period of time, accelerated life testing (ALT) is the most utilized approach in the field of product reliability and life testing. Based on progressively hybrid censored (PrHC) data from a three-component parallel series hybrid system that failed to owe to unknown causes, this paper investigates a challenging problem of parameter estimation and reliability assessment under a step stress partially accelerated life-test (SSPALT). Failures of components are considered to follow a power linear hazard rate (PLHR), which can be used when the failure rate displays linear, decreasing, increasing or bathtub failure patterns. The Tempered random variable (TRV) model is considered to reflect the effect of the high stress level used to induce early failure data. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approach is used to estimate the parameters of the PLHR distribution and the acceleration factor. A variance covariance matrix (VCM) is then obtained to construct the approximate confidence intervals (ACIs). In addition, studentized bootstrap confidence intervals (ST-B CIs) are also constructed and compared with ACIs in terms of their respective interval lengths (ILs). Moreover, a simulation study is conducted to demonstrate the performance of the estimation procedures and the methodology discussed in this paper. Finally, real failure data from the air conditioning systems of an airplane is used to illustrate further the performance of the suggested estimation technique.

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“…In reliability engineering, one of the main goals of reliability analysis is to identify the weak links of systems and improve the quality of the entire system. 1 On one hand, the numbers and types of components in modern large-scale systems have increased dramatically, which leads to the increasing complexity of functions and compositions of components, modules, and subsystems. As a result, one of the main problems in the field of reliability analysis and assessment at this stage is a reasonable and effective establishment of system reliability models in complex service environments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In reliability engineering, one of the main goals of reliability analysis is to identify the weak links of systems and improve the quality of the entire system 1 . On one hand, the numbers and types of components in modern large‐scale systems have increased dramatically, which leads to the increasing complexity of functions and compositions of components, modules, and subsystems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability analysis of systems with mixed uncertainties based on Bhattacharyya distance and Bayesian network

Jia

Sun

et al. 2022

Quality & Reliability Eng

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The lack of data due to the high cost of experiments, limited knowledge of system structure, and coupling failure mechanism make it necessary to consider uncertainties when analyzing the reliability of complex systems. This paper provides a comprehensive work for system reliability analysis under consideration of mixed uncertainties. First, Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to model the structure of complex systems. Second, mixed uncertainties are described via a probability box and accurately quantified by the Bhattacharyya distance, which can synthetically represent the mean and variance of two data sets. Then, the importance of components with mixed uncertainties is defined and analyzed. Finally, a comprehensive sensitivity index is proposed for sensitivity analysis and epistemic uncertainty tracing of data sources based on the Bhattacharyya distance. This method is used to analyze the reliability of an auxiliary power supply system of a train and verifies the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed method.

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Reliability analysis of a complex system with hybrid structures and multi-level dependent life metrics

Cited by 18 publications

References 55 publications

Degradation‐based reliability analysis of magnetic jack type control rod drive mechanism

Degradation‐based reliability analysis of magnetic jack type control rod drive mechanism

Parameter Estimation Based on Censored Data under Partially Accelerated Life Testing for Hybrid Systems due to Unknown Failure Causes

Reliability analysis of systems with mixed uncertainties based on Bhattacharyya distance and Bayesian network

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