“…For the case of pitting corrosion, it is well accepted that maximum depth of a pit follows a power function with a positive exponent less than one (equation (12)) 2,24…”
Section: Bayesian Inference Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…These two families of models are hybrid PHM models that combine inspection and measurement data with Physics of Failure (PoF) of the pitting corrosion process, by relying on this well-accepted assumption that maximum depth of a pit follows a power function with a positive exponent less than one. 2,24 The HB models rely more heavily on the inspection data, because in these approaches specific inspection data were available for each individual pit. In contrast, in the generic models, the PoF aspect is emphasized by taking into account the different covariates in degradation modeling.…”
Section: Related Work Approach and Contributionsmentioning
This article proposes a new framework to estimate the degradation level in oil and gas pipelines corroded by internal pitting when operational conditions change over time. Despite the fact that the operational conditions of a pipeline change at various times, this change has not been addressed in the current available pipeline corrosion degradation models. In this framework, a hierarchical Bayesian method and augmented particle filtering are used for data fusion to address this issue. This framework is applied on a case study and the results are compared with the estimations of a state of the art pitting corrosion degradation model.
“…For the case of pitting corrosion, it is well accepted that maximum depth of a pit follows a power function with a positive exponent less than one (equation (12)) 2,24…”
Section: Bayesian Inference Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…These two families of models are hybrid PHM models that combine inspection and measurement data with Physics of Failure (PoF) of the pitting corrosion process, by relying on this well-accepted assumption that maximum depth of a pit follows a power function with a positive exponent less than one. 2,24 The HB models rely more heavily on the inspection data, because in these approaches specific inspection data were available for each individual pit. In contrast, in the generic models, the PoF aspect is emphasized by taking into account the different covariates in degradation modeling.…”
Section: Related Work Approach and Contributionsmentioning
This article proposes a new framework to estimate the degradation level in oil and gas pipelines corroded by internal pitting when operational conditions change over time. Despite the fact that the operational conditions of a pipeline change at various times, this change has not been addressed in the current available pipeline corrosion degradation models. In this framework, a hierarchical Bayesian method and augmented particle filtering are used for data fusion to address this issue. This framework is applied on a case study and the results are compared with the estimations of a state of the art pitting corrosion degradation model.
“…The same method is used to measure the degradation of data samples, the measured Degradation data as follows: 11 12 1 21 22 2 1 2 , , According to the preset number, step (2) to step (4) were re- (5) peated to meet the required number of cloud droplets, as shown in Fig. 2.…”
Section: The Formation Of Performance Degradation Of Cloud Dropletsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The failure of steel tube is caused by too deep or too many pits on the surface. To study the failure mechanism of the depth and density growth of steel tube surface pit with time and pressure, a new model of steel tube was put forward by M. Nuhi under different temperature and different environment pressure aiming [11]. The research on the mechanism of degradation products is to study the concern question using the degradation law.…”
“…The deterioration of pipelines in the form of corrosion is found to be a major problem for pipeline operators that worsen as pipelines age. The annual direct cost of corrosion, in the U.S. oil industry exceeds $5.1 billion per year (Nuhi, Abu Seer et al 2011). Corrosion was a major cause of 18% of significant incidents from 1988-2008(Fessler 2008.…”
The evaluation of the structural strength of an offshore pipeline after 25 years of service is an important issue for extending its lifespan. This is an important environmental and economic issue, especially when the pipeline is related to the oil and gas industry. Remaining strength after corrosion effects are included in the performance equation and can be determined by using maximum operating pressure and capacity equations. The results are then compared from burst test results. In this study, Bayesian updating of probability of failure is used to evaluate the updated probability of failure. The performance equations from the two main codes on corrosion used in this study are B31G and DNV-RP-F101 and they are used validate the results. The sensitivity analysis of the variables such as defect depth and thickness is considered in the analysis. This method could be adopted for evaluating the service life extension and evaluation of pipelines working under extreme environments. FORM and Monte Carlo simulations will be used to determine the updated probability of failure. The method could be used for many engineering structures where either practical approaches are not feasible to determine the remaining life of the structure or the uncertainty of the expected results is too high. The evidence concluded in this study could be used by industry to enhance our understanding of the mechanisms for pipeline failure and processes necessary for its preservation.
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