Reliability analyses of underground openings with the point estimate method

Napa-García, Gian Franco; Beck, André Teófilo; Celestino, Tarcísio Barreto

doi:10.1016/j.tust.2016.12.010

Cited by 27 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The second example is derived from the feasibility studies of an urban tunnel for a metro system presented by Alarcón-Guerrero (2016). Other researchers have studied risk analysis and management applied to tunnelling as Einstein (1996), Sturk et al (1996), Shahriar et al (2008), Meng et al (2010), Sousa (2010), Mollon et al (2013), Jarek (2016 and Napa-Garcia et al (2017). The performance indicator chosen by Alarcón-Guerrero (2016) was the distortion angle, defined by the difference of settlements estimated for two locations divided by their distance.…”

Section: Examples Of Risk Management Applied To Geotechnical Structuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk management for geotechnical structures: consolidating theory into practice (Pacheco Silva Lecture)

Assis¹

2020

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This paper intends to consolidate the theory of risk management into practical applications in geotechnical engineering, presenting concepts, clarifying procedures and discussing openly its difficulties and trends. It brings the evolution of the risk concept and its application to engineering, worldwide and in Brazil, showing the trend of risk management as a decision-making tool in engineering with fair acceptance by the society. The probabilistic approach is discussed and compared to the deterministic one, focusing on the obtaining of reliability indexes and failure probabilities for engineering structures. For this, quantitative methods, such as event and fault tree analyses and probabilistic methods, are reviewed, discussing their applications and comparinPg their advantages and disadvantages. Risk metrics and the evaluation of its two components, failure probability and consequences due to failure, are presented, focusing on the need to quantify and monetise consequences, and, consequently, the engineering risks. From this derives the concept of overall cost, which is the structure cost or value added to its risk value, providing an efficient tool to compare engineering alternatives and solutions. Finally, the risk management scheme is discussed, focusing on the need to establish an intelligent risk management system, which incorporates an automatic and intelligent communication tool, to disseminate among professionals, company hierarchy and outside stakeholders, the structure risks, according to their levels in the Risk Diagram and guided by the company Risk Policy. This is illustrated by examples of applications in two geotechnical structures (a dam and an urban tunnel), showing its enormous potential as a decision-making tool in engineering, using risk-based or risk-informed approach.

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Section: Examples Of Risk Management Applied To Geotechnical Structuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk management for geotechnical structures: consolidating theory into practice (Pacheco Silva Lecture)

Assis¹

2020

S&R

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“…Calculation, including -Analytical design with the partial factor method(Bedi and Orr 2014;Nomikos and Sofianos 2014;Bjureland et al 2017b), -Design using numerical modelling(Jing and Hudson 2002; Jing 2003); its combination with the partial factor method is currently a debated topic in geotechnical engineering(Potts and Zdravkovic 2012;Lees 2017;Schweiger et al 2017), but there is little discussion of rock engineering applications, -Reliability-based design(Lü et al 2011;Langford and Diederichs 2013;Bjureland et al 2017aBjureland et al , 2019Napa-García et al 2017),• Empirical methods and other prescriptive measures(Barton et al 1974;Bieniawski 1989;Stille and Palmström 2003;Olsson and Palmström 2014), • Design by the observational method(Spross and Larsson 2014;Miranda et al 2015;Spross et al 2016;Bjureland et al 2017a;Spross and Johansson 2017).…”

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confidence: 99%

Principles of Risk-Based Rock Engineering Design

et al. 2019

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In comparison with other types of construction, the development of rock engineering design codes has been slow. Codes must, however, be developed with relevant discipline-specific characteristics in mind. This paper, therefore, presents a generic design framework for rock engineering. The framework is based on the presumption that rock engineering design must be viewed as decision-making under uncertainty, which makes the design process subject to general risk management principles, as risk is defined as "effect of uncertainties on objectives" (ISO 31000). Thus, rock engineering design codes ultimately need to facilitate design processes that target the risk, to enable design of structures that not only are sufficiently safe and durable and cost-effectively constructed, but also imply safe and healthy work conditions during construction and an acceptably low environmental impact. The presented framework satisfies this fundamental requirement and the authors find codification of its principles to be rather straightforward, as long as the level of detail in the code is governed by a strict application of ISO's general risk management principles. Further details on methods and practical recommendations can instead be supplemented in separate handbooks and application guidelines.

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“…Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is by far the most intuitive and well-known probabilistic method; however, it usually implies a very large computational burden. Point estimate methods (PEMs) are popular in geotechnical engineering (Hong, 1998;Rosenblueth, 1975;Zhao and Ono, 2000), but they are inaccurate for many problems (Napa-García et al, 2017). Using higher-order moment methods increases computation accuracy, but the efficiency is lost.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Point estimate methods (PEM) are very efficient and popular in geotechnical engineering (Harr, 1987;Hong, 1998;Rosenblueth, 1975;Zhao and Ono, 2000) but were shown to be inaccurate for many problems by Napa-García et al (Napa-García et al, 2017). Accuracy can be increased by using higher-order moment methods (Harr, 1989;Panchalingam and Harr, 1994), but…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reliability-based design of an earth and concrete dam.

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Reliability analyses of underground openings with the point estimate method

Cited by 27 publications

References 31 publications

Risk management for geotechnical structures: consolidating theory into practice (Pacheco Silva Lecture)

Risk management for geotechnical structures: consolidating theory into practice (Pacheco Silva Lecture)

Principles of Risk-Based Rock Engineering Design

Reliability-based design of an earth and concrete dam.

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