High-dose chemotherapy has long been advocated as a means of controlling 1 drug resistance in infectious diseases but recent empirical and theoretical studies have 2 begun to challenge this view. We show how high-dose chemotherapy engenders opposing 3 evolutionary processes involving the mutational input of resistant strains and their release 4 from ecological competition. Whether such therapy provides the best approach for 5 controlling resistance therefore depends on the relative strengths of these processes. These 6 opposing processes lead to a unimodal relationship between drug pressure and resistance 7 emergence. As a result, the optimal drug dose always lies at either end of the therapeutic 8 window of clinically acceptable concentrations. We illustrate our findings with a simple 9 model that shows how a seemingly minor change in parameter values can alter the outcome 10 from one where high-dose chemotherapy is optimal to one where using the smallest 11 clinically effective dose is best. A review of the available empirical evidence provides broad 12 support for these general conclusions. Our analysis opens up treatment options not 13 currently considered as resistance management strategies, and greatly simplifies the 14 experiments required to determine the drug doses which best retard resistance emergence 15 in patients. 16 Significance Statement: The evolution of antimicrobial resistant pathogens threatens 17 much of modern medicine. For over one hundred years, the advice has been to 'hit hard ', in 18 the belief that high doses of antimicrobials best contain resistance evolution. We argue 19 that nothing in evolutionary theory supports this as a good rule of thumb in the situations 20 that challenge medicine. We show instead that the only generality is to either use the 21 highest tolerable drug dose or the lowest clinically effective dose; that is, one of the two 22 edges of the therapeutic window. This approach suggests treatment options not currently 23 considered, and greatly simplifies the experiments required to identify the dose that best 24 retards resistance evolution. 25 1 Antimicrobial resistance is one of greatest challenges faced by modern medicine. There is a 26 widely held view that the evolutionary emergence of drug resistance is best slowed by using 27 high doses of drugs to eliminate pathogens as early and quickly as possible. This view, first 28 expounded by Ehrlich (1) ('hit hard') and later Fleming (2) ('if you use penicillin, use 29 enough'), is today encapsulated in the advice to administer 'the highest tolerated antibiotic 30 dose' (3, 4). The rationale is two-fold. First, a high concentration of drug will eliminate 31 drug-sensitive microbes quickly and thereby limit the appearance of resistant strains.
32Second, a high concentration of drug will also eliminate strains that have some partial 33 resistance, provided the concentration is above the so-called mutant prevention 34 concentration (MPC) (5-12).
35This is an intuitively appealing idea, but several authors have recent...