Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea-level rise

Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO 2 on geological timescales

“…Given the present-day (AD 2011) atmospheric CO 2 concentration of 392 ppm, we estimate that the long-term sea level will reach +24 +7 / −15 m (at 68% confidence) relative to the present. This estimate is an order of magnitude larger than current projections for the end of this century [up to 2 m; best estimate, 0.8 m (41)] and seems closer to the worst-case long-term sealevel projection portrayed by Meehl et al (1). Using terminology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report IPCC AR4 (5), we find it very likely (i.e., at 90% confidence) that long-term sea-level rise for sustained present-day CO 2 forcing will be >6 m, and likely (68% confidence) that it will be >9 m. Through analogy with the geological record, this rise likely will be achieved through melting of the GrIS and WAIS and possibly some portion of the EAIS (if sea level were to rise >14 m).…”

“…S ea-level change is one of the most significant and long-lasting consequences of anthropogenic climate change (1). However, accurate forecasting of the future magnitude of sea-level change is difficult because current numerical climate models lack the capacity to accurately resolve the dynamical processes that govern size changes of continental ice sheets [e.g., total disappearance of the current continental ice sheets would raise mean sea level by about 70 m (1)].…”

“…However, accurate forecasting of the future magnitude of sea-level change is difficult because current numerical climate models lack the capacity to accurately resolve the dynamical processes that govern size changes of continental ice sheets [e.g., total disappearance of the current continental ice sheets would raise mean sea level by about 70 m (1)]. This complicates long-range sea-level projections because the retreat of continental ice sheets will increasingly contribute to sea-level rise as the 21st century progresses (2), and because this rise will continue long into the future, even if temperatures were stabilized, according to different mitigation scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions (1). Because of the absence of adequate ice-dynamical processes in models, even the most recent estimates have to rely on assumed (linear) relationships between ice-volume reduction and global mean temperature increase (1), which as yet remain largely untested.…”

Planning for future sea-level rise in Swedish municipalities

“…As a consequence, high-end global warming and SLR scenarios are now being taken more seriously . Moreover, there is an increased understanding in the scientific community that SLR will likely continue for centuries, even with forceful climate change mitigation (Meehl et al 2012).…”

A Framework for Combining Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Projections to Aid Risk Management for Fisheries and Aquaculture

“…Most simplistic is a movement to new regions that meet the required environmental conditions. Given the longterm persistence of climate change (e.g., many centuries of temperature and sea level rise; Meehl et al, 2012), industries may have to relocate more than once in the future to stay within an environmental suitability envelope. If the changes are such that relocation is not possible or not cost-effective, an adaptation response could be to change the focal species of the fishery or aquaculture operation.…”