Relative Capacity and the Spread of Rebellion

Abstract

This article explores how insurgencies emerge and spread within a country over time through an analysis of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal. It argues that important processes underpinning the spread of insurgency are likely to change with shifts in the relative military capacity of belligerents. Importantly, insurgents can to a greater extent spread the insurgency by using coercion, material incentives, and movement of forces when they are militarily strong than when they are weak. This in turn leads to changes in the local conditions favorable to insurgency. I hypothesize that inaccessible terrains, preexisting rebel networks, and proximity to insurgent areas are likely to be important determinants of local insurgency onset during rebel weakness, but should decline in importance as the rebels gain strength. I find support for these arguments in a mixed-methods analysis of Nepal’s insurgency that combines a qualitative narrative and a quantitative event history analysis.

The value of sub-national data: The dynamics of contentious politics in Nepal

“…In this regard, Nepal was no exception. The country experienced a significant number of contentious events with geographical differences in terms of economic centers, population density, settlement areas of ethnic groups and war zones (Holtermann, 2016; Lawoti and Hangen, 2013). Moreover, Nepal dealt with a transition phase to a new constitution despite having low state capacity following the civil war (Vüllers and Schwarz, 2019; Upreti et al, 2013).…”

Sport for Development and Peace (SDP) Organisations and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of Nepal

“…the Tenth Plan, which outlined the roles of NGOs as a major contributor to local development, encouraging and facilitating them to work for underdeveloped communities, particularly in remote areas (NPC 2002). Notably, some of the civil society groups played a crucial role in the peace negotiations between the Maoist insurgents and the government in 2006 that led to the end of a decade-long armed conflict, which left over 13,000 people dead and 1,300 missing (Dahal 2006;Holtermann 2016 MOYS 2015). Thus, most of the NGOs in the area of 'Youth and Sports' target this age group and arguably, their development significantly contributes to the SDG achievement.…”

Compliance vs. constraints: A theory of rebel targeting in civil war

“…In the countryside, targeting is driven by compliance; in the cities, it is driven by legitimacy. It is not that rebels do not care for legitimacy in the countryside – rebellions sometimes break out in areas where insurgents could anticipate some level of support for their cause (Holtermann, 2016). The issue is that, regardless of the distribution of popular support, rebels anticipate that legitimacy usually goes for the actor ruling the area, rather than the other way around (Cohen, 2014; Kalyvas & Kocher, 2007).…”