Relationships between Changes in Air Temperature and Development of ‘Delaware’ Grape for the Past 48 Years in Habikino, Osaka, Japan

Kamimori, Masahiro; Miwa, Yuka; Isobe, Takeshi; Hosomi, Akihiro

doi:10.2503/hrj.18.133

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The budbreak of Delaware in Osaka, Japan, advanced at 1.5 days per decade between 1963 and2010 (Figure 1). This advance has been highly correlated with the rising trends in air temperature during the same years (Kamimori et al 2019). This finding is consistent with previous research that reported significantly advanced spring events (budbreak, leaf emergence, and bloom) of temperate woody perennials, owing to an increase in air temperature (Chmielewski et al 2004, Wolfe et al 2005, Hasegawa and Ogata 2007, Guédon and Legave 2008, Grab and Craparo 2011, Guo et al 2013).…”

Section: Conclusion and Significancesupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Budbreak date was defined as the date when the buds were swollen and >80% of the total buds were exposed from the scale, which corresponded to stage 5 on the BBCH scale, or to stage 3 on the Eichhorn-Lorenz (E-L) scale for grapevine growth (Lorenz et al 1995). Observational data spanning 53 years, from 1963 to 2022, were available (no observations were available from 2011 to 2017) (Kamimori et al 2019).…”

Section: Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of Chilling and Heat Requirements for the Budbreak of Delaware Grape in Osaka, Japan

Kamimori,

Hosomi

2024

Am J Enol Vitic.

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Background and goalsTe mpe rate woody pe re nnials , including grapes, require chilling and heat accumulation during dormancy to initiate growth in the following spring. The quantification of chilling and heat requirements is critical for a more accurate prediction of endodormancy breaking or budbreak. We aimed to estimate the chilling and heat requirements of Delaware grape in Osaka, Japan, by using partial least squares (PLS) regression to correlate the budbreak dates of Delaware with temperature variations from 1963 to 2022.

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Section: Conclusion and Significancesupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Chilling and Heat Requirements for the Budbreak of Delaware Grape in Osaka, Japan

Kamimori,

Hosomi

2024

Am J Enol Vitic.

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“…Therefore, predicting the full bloom date supports the creation of a work plan. However, many cases in which developmental processes of fruit crops have been affected by global warming have been reported (Sugiura and Yokozawa, 2004;Honjo, 2007;Sugiura et al, 2007Sugiura et al, , 2012Adachi et al, 2018;Kamimori et al, 2019). One example is early can be represented as an integral of the developmental rate, mainly expressed as a function of temperature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear Multivariate Prediction Model of ‘Kyoho’ Grape Full Bloom Dates in Japan

et al. 2022

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In this study, after developing a method for predicting full bloom dates of 'Kyoho' grape by incorporating 'Kyoho' growth characteristics at multiple sites in Japan into one model, we evaluated the prediction accuracy of the model. Using data of bud break dates and full bloom dates of 'Kyoho' at 14 public test sites from 2000-2018, we investigated the grape development characteristics at the sites. The conventional effective accumulated temperature model relies on the assumption of a linear relation between temperature and grape development. However, based on results of grape development characteristic analyses, we formulated new prediction models that include the following considerations: 1) a nonlinear relation between temperature and grape development, 2) effects of solar radiation on grape development, and 3) relations between Day of Year (DOY) of bud break date and grape development. Prediction analyses of two types were applied to full bloom dates at the 14 sites using the effective accumulated temperature model and our model, which includes the three considerations above simultaneously. For the first analysis, after estimating the model parameters for each site using data observed at that site, we predicted full bloom dates there. Evaluation of the prediction accuracy using leave-one-out cross validation revealed that the average root mean square error (RMSE) for all sites was 2.24 days for the effective accumulated temperature model. For our model, it was 2.06 days. The model had higher prediction accuracy at multiple sites. For the second analysis, we used the model parameters for each site based on data collected at all sites except the site in question. The average RMSE for all sites was 2.76 days for the effective accumulated temperature model and 2.54 days for our model. These results suggest that our model of 'Kyoho' growth characteristics at multiple sites can predict full bloom dates with higher accuracy than the effective accumulated temperature model.

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Prediction of Acid Concentration in Wine and Table Grape Berries from Air Temperature

et al. 2020

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To develop equations to predict the titratable acidity of grape berries at harvest from air temperature, we analyzed several years of datasets on wine grapes grown in experimental vineyards in seven prefectures and of table grapes grown in 37 prefectures in Japan. Although the number of days from the full-flowering date to harvest date varied with the cultivar, the temperature throughout the period of 40 to 50 days before the harvest date was the most strongly correlated with the titratable acidity of all tested cultivars. The titratable acidity at the harvest date of the wine grape cultivars decreased as the mean temperature of the period increased as did that of the table grape cultivars, although the latter did not decrease much above 24°C. The titratable acidity of the wine grape cultivars showed good linear regression with the mean temperature from 60 to 99 DAF (days after full-flowering) in 'Chardonnay', from 65 to 109 DAF in 'Monde Briller', and from 35 to 84 DAF in 'Colline Verte'. That of table grape cultivars grown in cold regions showed good quadratic regression with the mean temperature from 50 to 92 DAF in 'Kyoho', from 46 to 91 DAF in 'Pione', and from 52 to 93 DAF in 'Suzuka'. The titratable acidity of table grape cultivars grown in warm regions was estimated to be about 0.5 g/100 mL. These regression equations can be used to select cultivars to plant and to identify suitable regions for each cultivar, as well as to estimate changes in acid concentration under global warming. We also determined the relationship between the rate of acid reduction of the wine grape cultivars and temperature from serial measurements of titratable acidity to allow growers to predict the change in titratable acidity.

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Relationships between Changes in Air Temperature and Development of ‘Delaware’ Grape for the Past 48 Years in Habikino, Osaka, Japan

Cited by 4 publications

References 11 publications

Evaluation of Chilling and Heat Requirements for the Budbreak of Delaware Grape in Osaka, Japan

Evaluation of Chilling and Heat Requirements for the Budbreak of Delaware Grape in Osaka, Japan

Nonlinear Multivariate Prediction Model of ‘Kyoho’ Grape Full Bloom Dates in Japan

Prediction of Acid Concentration in Wine and Table Grape Berries from Air Temperature

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