In ⌽-value analysis, the effects of mutations on the folding kinetics are compared with the corresponding effects on thermodynamic stability to investigate the structure of the protein-folding transition state (TS). Here, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations (totaling 0.65 ms) have been performed for a large set of single-point mutants of a 20-residue three-stranded antiparallel -sheet peptide. Between 57 and 120 folding events were sampled at near equilibrium for each mutant, allowing for accurate estimates of folding͞unfolding rates and stability changes. The ⌽ values calculated from folding and unfolding rates extracted from the MD trajectories are reliable if the stability loss upon mutation is larger than Ϸ0.6 kcal͞mol, which is observed for 8 of the 32 single-point mutants. The same heterogeneity of the TS of the wild type was found in the mutated peptides, showing two possible pathways for folding. Single-point mutations can induce significant TS shifts not always detected by ⌽-value analysis. Specific nonnative interactions at the TS were observed in most of the peptides studied here. The interpretation of ⌽ values based on the ratio of atomic contacts at the TS over the native state, which has been used in the past in MD and Monte Carlo simulations, is in agreement with the TS structures of wild-type peptide. However, ⌽ values tend to overestimate the nativeness of the TS ensemble, when interpreted neglecting the nonnative interactions. ⌽ values are usually interpreted in terms of native contacts (4). This description has been successfully used to obtain sets of conformations from the TS ensemble of several proteins (5-9) and to bias molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories toward the TS (10). On the other hand, specific nonnative interactions may be formed at both the TS and denatured-state ensemble and lead to a wrong picture of TS if not taken into account (11). Furthermore, different experimental conditions or mutations may determine detectable changes in the TS structure, showing the presence of parallel pathways (12, 13) and, thus, a heterogeneous TS. In addition, the ensemble average associated with the use of certain folding observables, like the degree of tryptophan burial, may disguise the presence of multiple folding pathways and folding intermediates (14). Namely, a recent study (15) suggests that not all conformations obtained in MD simulations by using ⌽ values as restraints on a subset of the native contacts belong to the TS.The TS structures can be identified by MD simulations through the calculation of their folding probability P fold (16), i.e., the probability that a trajectory started from a given structure reaches the folded state before unfolding. The concept of P fold calculation was first introduced in a method for determining transmission coefficients, starting from a known TS (17), and used to identify TSs of simple conformational changes (e.g., tyrosine ring flips) (18). The approach has recently been used to study the otherwise very elusive folding TS by atomistic Monte Carlo off...