Relationship model of the agents of the coffee value chain in Honduras: the effect of rust

Abstract

the coffee activity is possible thanks to the work of a large number of people involved in the harvest, purchase, transportation, bean processing, roasting, grinding and packaging, distribution to the client, export and import. Therefore, the objective of this research is to model the effect of rust on the agents of the coffee value chain in the different regions of Honduras. To analyze the coffee production system based on the agents of the network, three steps are proposed. The first step is the analysis of the network using pajek to subsequently extract the network indicators based on the data provided by IHCAFE, the second step is the determination of ratios of producers in relation to the different agents involved in the value chain. Finally, a system of linear regression equations that model the system is determined using NetLogo. A simulation model based on linear regression was used to show the behavior of the copan sector. In this sector it was observed that the network indicators improve for each agent as they decrease, managing to estimate the number of agents according to the effect of rust as a future projection, maintaining exporters and cooperatives and reducing intermediaries. Finally, it is concluded that the agents of the coffee value chain, the producers, are the most relevant agents since they have greater proximity and intermediaries in the network. On the other hand, agents such as intermediaries and cooperatives can be dispensable from the value chain because they grow according to the coffee production in a region and do not have a significant correlation with the production of quintals of coffee.Keywords-supply chain, coffee rust, coffee value chain. Coffee networks.