Relationship between Water Temperature of Polish Rivers and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract

The objective of the paper consisted in determining the effect of macroscale types of NAO, AO, EA, EAWR, SCAND, and AMO atmospheric circulation on changes in water temperature in Polish rivers. The study has made use of a broad body of hydrometeorological materials covering daily water temperature values for 96 water gauge stations located on 53 rivers and air temperature values for 43 meteorological stations. Percentage shares of positive and negative coefficients of correlation of annual, seasonal, and monthly circulation type indices with air and river water temperature were determined, demonstrating the character of teleconnection. Determinations were made of water temperature deviations in positive and negative phases of the analyzed indices from average values from the years 1971–2015, and their statistical significance ascertained. Research has shown that relations between the temperature of river waters in Poland and macroscale circulation types are not strong, however they are noticeable, sometimes even statistically significant, and both temporally and spatially diverse. NAO, AO, EA, and AMO indices are characterized by a generally positive correlation with temperature, whereas SCAND and EWAR indices are characterized by a negative correlation. Research showed a varying impact of types of atmospheric circulation, with their effectiveness increasing in the winter season. The strongest impact on temperature was observed for the positive and negative NAO and AO phases, when deviations of water temperature from average values are correspondingly higher (up to 1.0 °C) and lower (by a maximum of 1.5 °C), and also for the positive and negative SCAND phases, when water temperature are correspondingly lower (by a maximum of 0.8 °C) and higher (by 1.2 °C) than average values. The strongest impact on water temperature in summer, mainly in July, was observed for AMO. The results point to the complexity of processes determining the thermal regime of rivers and to the possibility of additional factors—both regional and local—exerting an influence on their temporal and spatial variability.

Association Between Stroke Occurrence and Changes in Atmospheric Circulation

“…In the studied region, in winter, the positive EA/WR produced cold advection from the north and was characterised by a lower air temperature, a lower precipitation level, and stronger atmospheric circulation [45]. In the south-eastern region of Baltic Sea, a positive EA/WR indicated the north-westerly air ow [46], and the EA/WRI negatively correlated with air temperature in spring [47], with lake water temperature in spring-autumn [48], and with precipitation amount in summer [46]. According to our data, during the positive EA/WR phase, a higher mean WS and AP in winter and a lower mean T and a higher mean AP both in spring and summer were observed.…”

Estimation of the Dependence of Ice Phenomena Trends on Air and Water Temperature in River

“…The majority of authors have focused on an assessment of change tendencies at the start and end dates of RI and its duration, which, in light of the recorded increase in TA and TW, usually gives a result pointing to the shortening thereof. Apart from warmer winters, an increase in TA in the autumn and spring periods has also been noticeable, especially during the last twenty years of the 20th century but in recent decades as well [38,39,[69][70][71][72], which delays the date of appearance of IP in rivers and also accelerates their disappearance. Analyses conducted for the last five-to-six decades in Polish rivers [21,22,24,25,31,42,51,64,65,[73][74][75] have confirmed that the duration of IP has been shortened, though their respective change trends have differed along individual river sections.…”

“…An analysis of circulatory determinants impacting the occurrence of IC in the Noteć River was performed by Graf and Tomczyk [23], while an assessment of the relationship between the TW of Polish rivers and large-scale atmospheric circulation, which was accompanied by the disclosure of TW change patterns in Poland, was carried out by Graf and Wrzesiński [38,39] and Marszelewski and Pius [71,72]. Research conducted by Yoo and D'Odorico [5] in Northern Europe showed that the ice regime of surface waters is connected with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the features of which confirm long-term climate change [16].…”

“…When assessing the role of the climate in controlling change trends in RI, research has been conducted on many scales and using various approaches, which has broadened the comprehensive analysis of time series and spatial trends regarding IP phenology and their connections with climate pattern trends. In the case of large spatial patterns of atmospheric circulation, emphasis has been placed on determining and indicating those systems that control regional air temperature fluctuations [34][35][36][37][38][39], but the empirical dependencies between dates of occurrence of ice on rivers and TA indices may not be reliable under future climatic conditions. Certain RI effects are strongly controlled by processes occurring on the scale of the catchment area and the river bed (e.g., the dynamics and intensification of river ice breakage fronts), which must be taken into consideration in the analyses of local factors.…”

Association Between Stroke Occurrence And Changes In Atmospheric Circulation 

“…In the studied region, in winter, the positive EA/WR produced cold advection from the north and was characterised by a lower air temperature, a lower precipitation level, and stronger atmospheric circulation [45]. In the south-eastern region of Baltic Sea, the EA/WRI negatively correlated with air temperature in spring [46], with lake water temperature in spring-autumn [47], and with precipitation amount in summer [45]. According to our data, during the positive EA/WR phase, a higher mean WS and AP in winter and a lower mean T and a higher mean AP both in spring and summer were observed.…”