Relationship Between Interest Rate and Risk of P2P Lending in China Based on the Skew-Normal Panel Data Model

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between interest rate and defunct platform risk of China’s peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms. P2P lending provides an alternative funding source for individuals and micro-enterprises and offers a new investment tool for households. But the frequent collapses of many platforms were huge losses to market participants and even led to a decline in China’s P2P lending industry. In this study, weekly data of 76 platforms from December 3, 2017, to October 6, 2019, are employed, and empirical research based on the normal and skew-normal panel data model respectively is conducted. Statistical indicators prove that the skew-normal panel data model is preferable to another one in modeling the data set of interest rates. The empirical results show that China’s P2P market is efficient overall. But the positive correlation between the interest rate and risk is not significant for platforms with excessively high interest rates, whose interest rates are more determined by the types of ownership. The findings and implications are provided in the end.