Relationship between Cyclone Tracks, Anticyclone Tracks and Baroclinic Waveguides

Wallace, John M.; Lim, Gyu-Ho; Blackmon, Maurice L.

doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<0439:rbctat>2.0.co;2

Cited by 320 publications

(242 citation statements)

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“…The downstream development can • in longitude per day, respectively. The former appears to correspond to the zonal group velocity of a baroclinic wave packet (Chang, 1993), while the latter is in agreement with the typical zonal phase speed of synoptic-scale baroclinic waves (Wallace et al, 1988). Downstream extension of the ensemble-forecast spread maximum in the troposphere has been reported by Anwender et al (2008) and Harr et al (2008), and is also observed in our analysis associated with the downstream development of migratory synoptic-scale disturbances.…”

Section: Three-dimensional Evolution Of the Forecast Spreadsupporting

confidence: 88%

Three-dimensional evolution of ensemble forecast spread during the onset of a stratospheric sudden warming event in January 2006

Nishii

Nakamura

2010

Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.

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A singular value decomposition and a simple sensitivity analysis applied to an operational ensemble of monthly forecasts reveal that the prediction skill of a stratospheric sudden warming event observed in late January 2006 is particularly sensitive to uncertainty in the initial state in the vicinity of a developing synopticscale cyclone that was observed over the North Pacific more than two weeks prior to the peak of the event. For the first few days in the forecast, a local maximum of the forecast spread around the cyclone is translated eastward across the Pacific in association with observed downstream development of synoptic-scale disturbances. The spread then reaches the subpolar North Atlantic, where a blocking ridge was developing as the source of an upward-propagating Rossby-wave packet that gave rise to the deceleration of the stratospheric polar-night jet (PNJ). Following the observed wave packet, the maximum forecast spread is translated upward from the ridge and finally reaches the stratosphere, causing a large forecast spread in the PNJ deceleration.

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Section: Three-dimensional Evolution Of the Forecast Spreadsupporting

confidence: 88%

Three-dimensional evolution of ensemble forecast spread during the onset of a stratospheric sudden warming event in January 2006

Nishii

Nakamura

2010

Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.

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“…This method has been used for studying the behavior of mid-latitude baroclinic waves (Blackmon et al 1984;Wallace et al 1988), and tropical synoptic-scale disturbances (Lau and Lau 1990). Using the 25-100 day bandpass filtered velocity potential 3 ðwÞ, 8-day-forward and 8-day-backward lag correlation maps for a given reference point is computed.…”

Section: B Observational Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation by ENSO: Inferences from Observations and GCM Simulations

Tam

Lau

2005

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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The impact of the El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is studied, based on reanalysis data and output from an ensemble general circulation model (GCM) experiment. Observed monthly sea surface temperature variations over the period of 1950-99 are imposed in the deep tropical eastern/central Pacific in the course of the SST experiment. Both GCM, and reanalysis data, indicate that intraseasonal activity of the low-level zonal wind is enhanced (reduced) over the central (western) Pacific during El Niñ o events. The propagation and growth/decay characterisitcis of the MJO in different phases of ENSO is also examined, based on a lag correlation technique. During warm events there is an eastward shift in the locations of strong growth and decay, and the propagation of the MJO becomes slower in the warm ENSO phase. These changes are reversed during La Niñ a epsiodes.Using output from the GCM experiment, the effects of ENSO on the circulation and convection during the MJO lifecycle are studied in detail. Further eastward penetration of MJO-related convection is simulated during warm events over the central Pacific. An instability index related to the vertical gradient of the moist static energy is found to be useful for depicting the onset of MJO convection along the equator. During warm events, the stronger magnitudes of this index over the central Pacific are conducive to more eastward penetration of convective anomalies in the region. These changes are mainly due to the intensified moisture accumulation at low levels. Analysis of the moisture budget suggests that the stronger moisture accumulation can be related to the increased low-level humidity over the central Pacific during warm events.

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“…Storm tracks are the zones where extratropical cyclones are generated, developed and matured, and are located in the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where a strong westerly wind blows in the troposphere (Blackmon 1976;Wallace et al 1988). Trenberth (1991) discovered storm tracks stretching from the Southern Atlantic to the mid-latitude Indian Ocean.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The stages of cyclones development can be explained by linear baroclinic theory; infinitesimally small eddies develop exponentially under strong vertical wind shear (Charney 1947;Eady 1949), while the mature stage of cyclones is thought to play a significant role in their interaction with the time mean flow through barotropic energy conversion (Hoskins et al 1983;James 1987). Eulerian predictions of storm tracks explain the wintertime storm activity in the North Pacific in terms of its relationship with the time mean state (Wallace et al 1988). In the cold season, Japan is located between the Siberian high in the west and the Aleutian low in the east.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wintertime extratropical cyclone frequency around Japan

Inatsu

Terakura

2011

Clim Dyn

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Data analysis and regional atmospheric model (RAM) experiments revealed key factors in the control of wintertime cyclone passage routes from Northeast Asia to the western North Pacific. The cyclone routes were independent of the global flow pattern in the interannual variability, while cyclone growth closely agreed with linear baroclinic theory. The RAM experiments with a different lateral boundary condition composed of a combination of monthly mean and transient components also showed that the upstream eddies are important for the track route, but the background states are not. Additionally, the RAM experiments showed that the mean flow controlled the growth rate of cyclones.

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Relationship between Cyclone Tracks, Anticyclone Tracks and Baroclinic Waveguides

Cited by 320 publications

References 0 publications

Three-dimensional evolution of ensemble forecast spread during the onset of a stratospheric sudden warming event in January 2006

Three-dimensional evolution of ensemble forecast spread during the onset of a stratospheric sudden warming event in January 2006

Modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation by ENSO: Inferences from Observations and GCM Simulations

Wintertime extratropical cyclone frequency around Japan

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