Relationship between Change of Diet and Poverty in Mexico: A Stochastic Analysis

Abstract

Background: In this article, we seek to break the paradigm of traditional estimates (deterministically) to estimate the probability of transition from poverty and diet change in Mexico through a stochastic model while providing a comparative study in the time between the diet change and poverty. Methods: A model based on the theory of Markov applied to the different dimensions of poverty and diet type from aggregate data from government agencies was used. Also likely future state changes were estimated and Monte Carlo simulation was used to find a balance between the transition probabilities of the different states. Results: It was shown that there was a high probability of consuming more fat than protein and carbohydrates in Mexico. In the case of poverty, it was found that poverty of patrimony presented the highest probability of change. Estimates for 2030 show as well that the Mexican population will have equal probabilities of state transition to the type of diet and poverty, as long as you consider changing some current values of both consumption and poverty. Conclusions: It was shown that there was indeed a close relationship between poverty of patrimony and an unbalanced diet where the probability of fat intake was high. The stochastic approach had enabled us, in addition to linking poverty and changing diet, to prevent the Mexican population of future scenarios that could be dramatic and, to avoid this situation, alternatives of change of state consumption and poverty had been proposed.

Food System vs. Sustainability: An Incompatible Relationship in Mexico

“…We take the example of Mexico; currently, the country has the highest dietary water [53] and carbon footprints [117], in addition to having the highest overweight and obesity rates worldwide [118]. The Mexican dietary pattern presents a high consumption of animal-origin protein, such as meat, eggs, and dairy as protein sources [53], while including lots of ultra-processed foods, especially soft drinks, and high-sugar and -fat foods, thus abandoning the traditional diet and adopting a mainly Westernized dietary pattern [6,24,53,119,120] As an example of this, we find that most developed and even developing countries are going through this nutrition transition, and although concepts and frameworks keep arising, health and environmental issues do too [49,50]. Therefore, it looks like the problem is no longer a conceptual or scientific evidence concern but a practical and political issue.…”