Relation of Daily Mortality to Air Pollution: An Analysis of 14 London Winters, 1958/59–1971/72

Abstract

The relationship between daily deaths and daily concentrations of Smoke and SO2 in London, England for 14 winters during the years 1958-1959 through 1971-1972 has been explored. Three types of analyses were used: (1) year-by-year multiple regression; (2) stratification using nested quartiles of one pollutant within quartiles of the other; and (3) multiple regression of a special subset of high pollution days. An association was found with Smoke, but not with SO2. Whether a linear model with zero threshold or a threshold model best fits could not be determined unambiguously because of a statistical artifact. Reasons for preferring a threshold-type quadratic model are given.

Air pollution and daily mortality in three U.S. counties.

“…Although a number of pollutants must have been high during the notorious London smog episode of December 1952, subsequent analyses of the increased mortality during the episode considered only particulates and sulfur dioxide (14,15). It is generally true that, before the mid-1990s, most epidemiologic studies of air pollution and mortality focused on the particulates and sulfur dioxide, to the exclusion of other pollutants (13).…”

“…Reported effects of air pollution include decreased lung function (1,2), increased emergency room visits for asthma (3), increased hospital admissions (4,5) and, most importantly, increased mortality (6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16). Although human populations are exposed to a complex mixture of air pollutants that vary in composition with geography and climatic conditions, much of the recent work on air pollution epidemiology has focused on individual components of air pollution, rather than sources of pollution or the entire pollution mix.…”

Environment and Human Health: The Challenge of Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

“…Nevertheless, long-term, community-wide improvements in respiratory health [102] arising from the Clean Air Acts (UK 1956 onward; USA 1963 onward), which enhanced not only the health of the vulnerable, socio-economically deprived but also the richer members of the relevant societies, are poorly documented. Further examination of mortality data for the 14 London winters, 1958/59-1971/72 shows a decreasing mortality trend (R 2 = 0.54 for 3-year rolling average number of deaths) consistent with the then decreasing atmospheric particulate matter [103]. Current concerns about air pollution, down even to local authority level, indicates the wide potential for improving health from improving the environment [104].…”

Estimating Fuel Cycle Externalities: Analytical Methods and Issues, Report 2

“…London data for 14 winters, 1958-59 through 1971-72, have been analyzed by Mazumdar et al (1982), Ostro (1984Ostro ( , 1985 and Marcus (1986,1990), and reviewed by EPA (1986). In the earlier winters,…”