Relation between SSTs and Predictability of Seasonal Mean Precipitation over the Western Tropical Pacific

Kobayashi, Chiaki; Maeda, Shuhei; Itô, Akira; Matsushita, Yasuhiro; Takano, Kiyoharu

doi:10.2151/jmsj.83.919

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…There is a negative rainfall anomaly for both early and late summer in the Philippine Sea, corresponding to the previous winter Niñ o-3.4 SST (Fig. 9 and is identical to that used to represent the tropical WNP in previous studies (Lu 2001a;Wu and Wang 2001;Kobayashi et al 2005). Since the location of this negative rainfall anomaly is roughly the same in early and late summer, we define a Philippine Sea rainfall anomaly index (PSRI) by simply averaging rainfall anomalies over the region (108-208N, 1108-1608E) and then multiplying the average by minus one.…”

Section: Mechanisms For the Changes In The Ensorainfall Relationship supporting

confidence: 72%

Subseasonal Variation in ENSO-Related East Asian Rainfall Anomalies during Summer and Its Role in Weakening the Relationship between the ENSO and Summer Rainfall in Eastern China since the Late 1970s

Yan

2011

Journal of Climate

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The findings of the study reported in this paper show that, during ENSO decaying summers, rainfall and circulation anomalies exhibit clear subseasonal variation. Corresponding to a positive (negative) December-February (DJF) Niñ o-3.4 index, a positive (negative) subtropical rainfall anomaly, with a southwest-northeast tilt, appears in South China and the western North Pacific (WNP) in the subsequent early summer (from June to middle July) but advances northward into the Huai River Basin in China as well as Korea and central Japan in late summer (from late July to August). Concurrently, a lower-tropospheric anticyclonic anomaly over the WNP extends northward from early to late summer. The seasonal change in the basic flows, characterized by the northward shift of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet and the WNP subtropical high, is suggested to be responsible for the differences in the above rainfall and circulation anomalies between early and late summer by inducing distinct extratropical responses even under the almost identical tropical forcing of a precipitation anomaly in the Philippine Sea.A particular focus of the study is to investigate, using station rainfall data, the subseasonal variations in ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in eastern China since the 1950s, to attempt to examine their role in weakening the relationship between the ENSO and summer mean rainfall in eastern China since the late 1970s. It is found that the ENSO-related rainfall anomalies tend to be similar between early and late summer before the late 1970s, that is, the period characterized by a stronger ENSO-summer mean rainfall relationship. After the late 1970s, however, the anomalous rainfall pattern in eastern China is almost reversed between early and late summer, resulting accordingly in a weakened relationship between the ENSO and total summer rainfall in eastern China.

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Section: Mechanisms For the Changes In The Ensorainfall Relationship supporting

confidence: 72%

Subseasonal Variation in ENSO-Related East Asian Rainfall Anomalies during Summer and Its Role in Weakening the Relationship between the ENSO and Summer Rainfall in Eastern China since the Late 1970s

Yan

2011

Journal of Climate

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“…9), especially after mid-June. This might be associated with the lower SST along 15 -20 N. The importance of an active role of convection in lowering the underlying SST around the WNP region is also stressed in the previous AGCM studies (Wang et al 2005;Kobayashi et al 2005).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

Evaluation for the Seasonal Evolution of the Summer Monsoon over the Asian and Western North Pacific Sector in the WCRP CMIP3 Multi-model Experiments

Inoue

Ueda

2009

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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Based on the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset, evaluation for the summer monsoon over the Asian and western North Pacific (WNP) sectors is made in terms of reproducibility of the seasonal mean structure. Also investigated is a stepwise eastward progress of convection center from the Indian Ocean toward the WNP in the course of the maturing process of the continental and oceanic monsoons.Most models roughly reproduce seasonal mean broad-scale features on the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), but lower-tropospheric circulation over East Asia (EA) through the WNP and the location and intensity of the North Pacific subtropical high exhibit large inter-model variability. Some of the models fail to reproduce a reversal of the upper-tropospheric meridional temperature gradient over the South Asia and the North Indian Ocean sector. Metrics on the reproducibility of lower-tropospheric circulation of the ASM are also presented, in order to evaluate the reproducibility of the ASM circulation quantitatively.The large inter-model variability over the EA-WNP domains could be attributed to insu‰cient reproducibility of the oceanic monsoon. In most of the models, the stepwise eastward progress of convection over the South China Sea and WNP commences in May almost concurrently with large-scale circulation, whereas the eastward progress of convection is faster in most of the models than in the observation over the WNP. It is suggested that a teleconnection pattern associated with an intensification of convective activity over the WNP in mid-July is one of the key phenomena in both the observation and the coupled models, given the withdrawal of the Baiu rainy season around Japan. The analysis based on metrics concerning the stepwise eastward progress of convection over the WNP and its vicinity suggests that these models still have some di‰culties in reproducing the stepwise eastward progress of convection accurately.

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“…Kobayashi et al (2005) also pointed out that the relationship between the precipitation and in situ SST are dependent on the monsoon seasonality. In addition to the seasonal dependence of the local air-sea interaction, we also strengthen the importance of the remote air-sea interaction to understand the localized convection around the Philippines.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Role of Zonal Gradient of SST between the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific in Localized Convection around the Philippines

Ohba

Ueda

2006

SOLA

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Interannual fluctuations of the convective activity around the Philippines are highly correlated with the east-west gradient of SST between the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and the western North Pacific (WNP). We conducted a set of experiments by use of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to assess the relative importance of the remote (NIO) versus in situ (WNP) SST anomalies in determining the WNP monsoon rainfall as ocean-to-atmosphere feedback. The solutions indicate that both in situ and remote SST anomalies regulate precipitation around the Philippines in the early summer. This result implies that the WNP monsoon rainfall is sensitive to the spatial distribution of the NIO SST anomalies as well as the in situ anomalies. These physical interpretations suggest further increase of the predictability in the WNP monsoon.

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Relation between SSTs and Predictability of Seasonal Mean Precipitation over the Western Tropical Pacific

Abstract: This study investigates the difference of the predictability of seasonal mean precipitation with Japan Meteorological

Cited by 12 publications

References 20 publications

Subseasonal Variation in ENSO-Related East Asian Rainfall Anomalies during Summer and Its Role in Weakening the Relationship between the ENSO and Summer Rainfall in Eastern China since the Late 1970s

Subseasonal Variation in ENSO-Related East Asian Rainfall Anomalies during Summer and Its Role in Weakening the Relationship between the ENSO and Summer Rainfall in Eastern China since the Late 1970s

Evaluation for the Seasonal Evolution of the Summer Monsoon over the Asian and Western North Pacific Sector in the WCRP CMIP3 Multi-model Experiments

A Role of Zonal Gradient of SST between the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific in Localized Convection around the Philippines

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