Related‐variables selection in temporal disaggregation

Fukuda, Kosei

doi:10.1002/for.1115

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 38 publications

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“…In the non-related-variables method, on the other hand, unobserved yearly values of the time series are estimated by using only observed census data. The related-variables method has the following two drawbacks (Fukuda 2009). First, there has been no reliable criterion for determining the inclusion or exclusion of related variables.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interpolation and forecasting of population census data

Fukuda

2010

J Pop Research

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Since population censuses are not annually implemented, population estimates are needed for the intercensal period. This paper describes simultaneous implementations of the temporal interpolation and forecasting of the population census data, aggregated by age and period. Since age equals period minus cohort, age-period-cohort decomposition suffers from the identification problem. In order to overcome this problem, the Bayesian cohort (BC) model is applied. The efficacy of the BC model for temporal interpolation is examined in comparison with official Japanese population estimates. Empirical results suggest that the BC model is expected to work well in temporal interpolation. Regarding the age-period-cohort decomposition of the Japanese census data, it is shown that the cohort effect is the largest while the other two effects are very small but not negligible. With regard to the forecasting of the Japanese population, the official population forecast considerably outperforms the BC forecast in most forecast horizons. However, the pace of increase in root mean square error for longer-term forecasting is larger in the official population forecast than in the BC forecasts. As a result, a variant of the BC forecast is best for 10-year forecast.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interpolation and forecasting of population census data

Fukuda

2010

J Pop Research

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Aviation fuel demand development in China

et al. 2014

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Revisiting the tax evasion and corruption–economic development nexus in Ghana: fresh evidence from a SEM approach

Amoh

Ofori‐Boateng

Nsor-Ambala

et al. 2023

JEAS

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PurposeThis study explored the tax evasion and corruption–economic development nexus in Ghana and the moderating role of institutional quality in this relationship.Design/methodology/approachTo achieve this objective, this study employed the structural equation modelling (SEM) strategy and maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method on selected quarterised data from 1996 to 2020.FindingsThe study found that tax evasion has a positive impact on GDP per capita and urbanisation but a negative impact on the Economic Freedom of the World Index (EFWI). The study revealed that corruption has a positive relationship with GDP per capita but relates with EFWI inversely. Finally, the study found that institutional quality moderates the nexus between tax evasion and corruption and economic development.Social implicationsThe findings imply that the quality of state institutions has a significant impact on the government's ability to control tax evasion and corruption in order to drive economic development.Originality/valueOne novelty of the study is the examination of the combined effects of tax evasion and corruption as exogenous variables in a single econometric model. Again, to moderate the multivariate relationships of the study, the principal component analysis (PCA) was used to create an institutional quality index. The study recommends that policymakers implement comprehensive tax evasion and corruption reduction strategies simultaneously in order to increase tax revenues for economic development and SDGs achievement.

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Related‐variables selection in temporal disaggregation

Cited by 5 publications

References 38 publications

Interpolation and forecasting of population census data

Interpolation and forecasting of population census data

Aviation fuel demand development in China

Revisiting the tax evasion and corruption–economic development nexus in Ghana: fresh evidence from a SEM approach

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