“…retirement tend to concentrate around the point where people become eligible for social security even when incentives to retire are not very strong, e.g. Gruber and Wise, 1998;Atalay and Barrett, 2015;Seibold, 2021;Gruber et al, 2020. In particular, Amin-Smith and Crawford (2018) and MacCuish ( 2022) Notes: Fitted values of the weight on the life table policy, p k,D , for D = (C, T ), i.e., for the control and treatment groups, for all cohort groups, k. Mean values for all but the three oldest cohort groups are overlaid. For the oldest cohort groups, p k,D is not identified as there is no discernible difference between the beliefs of the treatment and control groups.…”