Regression Towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature.

Galton, Francis

doi:10.2307/2841583

Cited by 860 publications

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“…To test the deviation from the within-locus additive model, we used the linear model height Bb s sex þ b a age þ b AB P AB þ b BB P BB , where P AB and P BB are the estimated probabilities of the AB and BB genotypes, respectively. This model was contrasted to the model under additive restriction b BB ¼ 2 b AB using the likelihood ratio test (LRT; twice the difference between maximum loglikelihood of these models is asymptotically distributed as w 1 2 ). Multiple testing was accounted for using Bonferroni…”

Section: Victorian and Genomic Height Prediction Ys Aulchenko Et Almentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting human height by Victorian and genomic methods

et al. 2009

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In the Victorian era, Sir Francis Galton showed that 'when dealing with the transmission of stature from parents to children, the average height of the two parents, y is all we need care to know about them' (1886). One hundred and twenty-two years after Galton's work was published, 54 loci showing strong statistical evidence for association to human height were described, providing us with potential genomic means of human height prediction. In a population-based study of 5748 people, we find that a 54-loci genomic profile explained 4-6% of the sex-and age-adjusted height variance, and had limited ability to discriminate tall/short people, as characterized by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). In a family-based study of 550 people, with both parents having height measurements, we find that the Galtonian mid-parental prediction method explained 40% of the sex-and age-adjusted height variance, and showed high discriminative accuracy. We have also explored how much variance a genomic profile should explain to reach certain AUC values. For highly heritable traits such as height, we conclude that in applications in which parental phenotypic information is available (eg, medicine), the Victorian Galton's method will long stay unsurpassed, in terms of both discriminative accuracy and costs. For less heritable traits, and in situations in which parental information is not available (eg, forensics), genomic methods may provide an alternative, given that the variants determining an essential proportion of the trait's variation can be identified.

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Section: Victorian and Genomic Height Prediction Ys Aulchenko Et Almentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting human height by Victorian and genomic methods

et al. 2009

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“…Whenever two variables are imperfectly correlated, extreme scores on one variable tend to be matched by less extreme scores on the other variable (Galton, 1886). An intense positive experience, for instance, is likely to seem more neutral in memory, just as an intense negative experience is likely to seem more neutral in memory (Van Boven, White, & Huber, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

When the best appears to be saved for last: Serial position effects on choice

Epley

2009

Behavioral Decision Making

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Decision-makers often evaluate options sequentially due to constraints on attention, timing, or physical location of the options. Choosing the best option will therefore often depend on people's memories of the options. Because imperfect recall introduces uncertainty in earlier options, judgments of those options should regress toward the category mean as memory decays over time. Relatively desirable options will therefore tend to seem less desirable with time, and relatively undesirable options will tend to seem less undesirable with time. We therefore predicted that people will tend to select the first option in a set when choosing between generally undesirable options, and will tend to select the last when choosing between generally desirable options. We demonstrate these serial position effects in choices among paintings, American Idol audition clips, jellybeans, and female faces, provide evidence of its underlying mechanism, and explain how these findings build on existing accounts.

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“…Few students possess an intuitive grasp of the concept of regression toward the mean even though there are several everyday expressions such as "law of averages", "things will even out" or "we are due for a good day after a string of bad ones". The concept was first used by Francis Galton (1886) in his paper "Regression towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature." Galton was interested in the relationship between the height of offspring relative to the height of their parents and found that tall parents tend to have tall children, but not usually as tall as they are.…”

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Why best cannot last: Cultural differences in predicting regression toward the mean

Spina

Ross

et al. 2010

Asian J of Social Psycho

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This research was supported by a grant from Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada and a research initiation grant from Queen's University to Li-Jun Ji. We thank the Cultural Psychology Laboratory at Queen's University for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of the article. Correspondence should be addressed to Li-Jun Ji, Dept of Psychology, Queen's University, Canada, email: lijunji@queensu.ca. Chinese correspondence may be sent to Zhiyong Zhang, Dept of Psychology, Peking University, China, email: zzhang@pku.edu.cn, or Ye Li, Dept of Psychology, Huazhong Normal University, email: liye@mail.ccnu.edu.cn. Page 1 of 33Asian Journal of Social Psychology 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 Four studies were conducted to investigate cultural differences in predicting and understanding regression toward the mean. We demonstrated, with tasks in such domains as athletic competition, health, and weather, that Chinese were more likely than Canadians to make predictions consistent with regression toward the mean. In addition, Chinese were more likely than Canadians to choose a regression-consistent explanation to account for regression toward the mean. The findings are consistent with cultural differences in lay theories about how people, objects, and events develop over time. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 For many North American professors of statistics, the following anecdote will be familiar. An instructor tells a North American class of statistics students that Bob, a high school senior, achieved a SAT score of 760 out of a possible 800 points, when the average score was 480. Next the instructor poses a question: What score do you expect Bob to attain if he takes an alternative version of the test and there are no practice or learning effects? Most students assume that Bob would perform at least as well the second time. Few students possess an intuitive grasp of the concept of regression toward the mean even though there are several everyday expressions such as "law of averages", "things will even out" or "we are due for a good day after a string of bad ones". The concept was first used by Francis Galton (1886) in his paper "Regression towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature." Galton was interested in the relationship between the height of offspring relative to the height of their parents and found that tall parents tend to have tall children, but not usually as tall as they are. Short parents tend to have short children, but not usually as short as they are. Page 2 of 33 Asian Journal of Social PsychologyThis regression toward the mean can be explained by the fact that measurements and scores always involve so...

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Regression Towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature.

Cited by 860 publications

References 0 publications

Predicting human height by Victorian and genomic methods

Predicting human height by Victorian and genomic methods

When the best appears to be saved for last: Serial position effects on choice

Why best cannot last: Cultural differences in predicting regression toward the mean

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