Regionalized Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: narratives and spatial population projections for the Mediterranean coastal zone

Reimann, Lena; Merkens, Jan-Ludolf; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.

doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1189-2

Cited by 49 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…For large clusters, an intercept of -14. 16 and a slope of 6.29 led to the best fit. For all small clusters, we applied the modeled population density for an extent of 10 ha.…”

Section: Resampling Of Populationmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Two of the most commonly employed datasets are the Gridded Population of the World (GPW) [13] and the Global Rural Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) [14]. They cover the entire globe at a spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds (approximately 1 km at the equator) and have been widely used in coastal-exposure analysis (e.g., References [7,15,16] for GPW; References [5,6,17] for GRUMP). GPW is based on population census tables of administrative units and distributes population uniformly on land areas within administrative units [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using Information on Settlement Patterns to Improve the Spatial Distribution of Population in Coastal Impact Assessments

Merkens

Vafeidis

2018

Sustainability

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Broad-scale impact and vulnerability assessments are essential for informing decisions on long-term adaptation planning at the national, regional, or global level. These assessments rely on population data for quantifying exposure to different types of hazards. Existing population datasets covering the entire globe at resolutions of 2.5 degrees to 30 arc-seconds are based on information available at administrative-unit level and implicitly assume uniform population densities within these units. This assumption can lead to errors in impact assessments and particularly in coastal areas that are densely populated. This study proposes and compares simple approaches to regionalize population within administrative units in the German Baltic Sea region using solely information on urban extent from the Global Urban Footprint (GUF). Our results show that approaches using GUF can reduce the error in predicting population totals of municipalities by factor 2 to 3. When assessing exposed population, we find that the assumption of uniform population densities leads to an overestimation of 120% to 140%. Using GUF to regionalise population within administrative units reduce these errors by up to 50%. Our results suggest that the proposed simple modeling approaches can result in significantly improved distribution of population within administrative units and substantially improve the results of exposure analyses.

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“…For large clusters, an intercept of -14. 16 and a slope of 6.29 led to the best fit. For all small clusters, we applied the modeled population density for an extent of 10 ha.…”

Section: Resampling Of Populationmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Information on Settlement Patterns to Improve the Spatial Distribution of Population in Coastal Impact Assessments

Merkens

Vafeidis

2018

Sustainability

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“…A growing number of studies have employed the narratives of the global SSPs to develop extended SSPs for specific regions and/or sectors. So far, extended SSPs include extended SSPs of urban and population development worldwide [40,41], in coastal areas [42,43], and in large cities [44], extended SSPs for health [45,46], for the water sector [47,48], for fisheries [49], for the forestry sector [50], and for food security worldwide [51], in West-Africa [52], and in South-East Asia [53], and extended SSPs for specific regions, e.g. the Barents region [54], the Arctic [55], Tokyo [56], Iberia [57], Scotland [57], the US [58], and Europe [5,59].…”

Section: Extended Sspsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Rohat¹

2018

Preprint

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The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new global development trends that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure—i.e., mainly future population patterns—neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps—mainly linked to the paucity of available projections—that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs—namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts’ elicitation and correlation analyses—and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods—such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models—show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability—under varying levels of socioeconomic development—and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change.

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“…extended SSPs for health (Ebi 2013, Sellers and, food security worldwide (Hasegawa et al 2015), the water sector (Wada et al 2016, Yao et al 2017, fisheries (Maury et al 2017), forestry , population distribution (Jones and O'Neill 2016), and urbanization (Li et al 2019). However, there has been only a few regional extensions, limited as for now to extended SSPs for the Barents Region (Nilsson et al 2017), the South-East US (Absar and Preston 2015), West-Africa (Palazzo et al 2017), New Zealand (Frame et al 2018), the Mediterranean coast (Reimann et al 2018), the Baltic Sea (Zandersen et al 2019), Europe (Kok et al 2019, Tokyo (Kamei et al 2016), and Houston (Rohat et al in revision). The two latter set of extended SSPs -which are the only existing urban extended SSPs to our knowledge -have been developed based on the review of historical trends, and subsequently refined through an interactive process with key local experts using individual interviews and/or questionnaires.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways at the city scale to inform future vulnerability assessments – The case of Boston, Massachusetts

Lino¹,

Rohat²,

Kirshen³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Climate change will impact cities' infrastructure and urban dwellers, who often show differentiated capacity to cope with climate-related hazards. An emerging research field, using the latest global socioeconomic and climate scenarios -namely the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration (RCPs) -is exploring how different socioeconomic pathways will influence future society's ability to cope with climate change impacts. While the SSPs have been extensively used at the global scale, their use at the local and urban scale has remained rare, as they first need to be contextualized and extended for the particular place of interest. In this study, we present and apply a method to develop multi-scale extended SSPs at the city and neighborhood scale. Using Boston, Massachusetts, as a case study, we combined scenario matching, experts' elicitation, and participatory processes to contextualize and make the global SSPs relevant at the urban scale. We subsequently employed the extended SSPs to explore future neighborhood-level vulnerability to extreme heat under multiple plausible socioeconomic trajectories, highlighting the usefulness of extended SSPs in informing future vulnerability assessments. The large differences in outcomes hint at the enormous potential of risk reduction that social and urban planning policies could trigger in the next decades.

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Regionalized Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: narratives and spatial population projections for the Mediterranean coastal zone

Cited by 49 publications

References 37 publications

Using Information on Settlement Patterns to Improve the Spatial Distribution of Population in Coastal Impact Assessments

Using Information on Settlement Patterns to Improve the Spatial Distribution of Population in Coastal Impact Assessments

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways at the city scale to inform future vulnerability assessments – The case of Boston, Massachusetts

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