Regionalization of hydrologic response in the Great Lakes basin: Considerations of temporal scales of analysis

Abstract

Keywords:Runoff Regionalization Prediction in ungauged basins Hydrologic response Regression model Great Lakes basin s u m m a r y Methods for predicting streamflow in areas with limited or nonexistent measures of hydrologic response commonly rely on regionalization techniques, where knowledge pertaining to gauged watersheds is transferred to ungauged watersheds. Hydrologic response indices have frequently been employed in contemporary regionalization research related to predictions in ungauged basins. In this study, we developed regionalization models using multiple linear regression and regression tree analysis to derive relationships between hydrologic response and watershed physical characteristics for 163 watersheds in the Great Lakes basin. These models provide an empirical means for simulating runoff in ungauged basins at a monthly time step without implementation of a rainfall-runoff model. For the dependent variable in these regression models, we used monthly runoff ratio as the indicator of hydrologic response and defined it at two temporal scales: (1) treating all monthly runoff ratios as individual observations, and (2) using the mean of these monthly runoff ratios for each watershed as a representative observation. Application of the models to 62 validation watersheds throughout the Great Lakes basin indicated that model simulations were far more sensitive to the temporal characterization of hydrologic response than to the type of regression technique employed, and that models conditioned on individual monthly runoff ratios (rather than long term mean values) performed better. This finding is important in light of the increased usage of hydrologic response indices in recent regionalization studies. Models using individual observations for the dependent variable generally simulated monthly runoff with reasonable skill in the validation watersheds (median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency = 0.53, median R 2 = 0.66, median magnitude of the deviation of runoff volume = 13%). These results suggest the viability of empirical approaches to simulate runoff in ungauged basins. This finding is significant given the many regions of the world with sparse gauging networks and limited resources for gathering the field data required to calibrate rainfallrunoff models.

Streamflow Alteration from Impervious Cover: Are All Watersheds Created Equal?

“…RPART is the R-statistical software version of Classification and Regression Trees which creates binary decision tree models based on multivariate inputs (Therneau et al 2018). Other studies have applied RPART in a similar manner to evaluate the relationship between streamflow/streamflow metrics and physical/climatic watershed characteristics (Detenbeck et al 2005;Kennard et al 2010;McManamay et al 2012;Reidy Liermann et al 2012;Kult et al 2014;Singh et al 2014;Deshmukh and Singh 2016;Almeida et al 2017;Lane et al 2017). This study focuses specifically on the relationship between watershed characteristics and flow alteration due to impervious cover.…”

Impacto da expansão da palma de óleo sobre o escoamento superficial e produção de sedimentos nas sub-bacias hidrográficas não monitoradas dos rios Bujaru e Mariquita no nordeste do estado do Pará, Amazônia Oriental

“…As variáveis mais utilizadas na literatura têm sido a área de drenagem, comprimento do rio, declividade e a precipitação (SIMMERS et al, 1984;CLAUSEN;PEARSON, 1995;TUCCI et al, 1995;POST et al, 1998;SILVA JÚNIOR. et al, 2003;WILKINSON et al, 2006;KULT et al, 2014 Outros trabalhos no Brasil e no mundo também aplicaram a equação de Preistley-Taylor na modelagem com o SWAT obtendo resultados a nível experimental e também com qualidade nas simulações da evapotranspiração (NEVES et al, 2005;WANG et al 2006;SCHNEIDER et al, 2007 ;CAN et al, 2015;BRESSIANE et al ,2016, no prelo). Após a analise das simulações iniciais, podem-se indicar algumas demandas de calibração do modelo Bujaru inicialmente, as quais podem ser ajustadas para a obtenção de um resultado mais adequado a região, sendo:…”

Hydrologic Response and Erosion Modeling of Geomorphic Landform Reclamation in Mountainous Terrain

“…Hydrologic response is often defined as the process of rainfall transitioning to runoff and includes watershed routing, loss, and storage processes (Kult et al, 2015). Proper understanding of hydrologic responses have important implications for the mitigation of possible flood damage to human life, property, and wildlife (Eshleman, 2004).…”

“…Hydrologic response is the process of rainfall transitioning to runoff and includes watershed routing, loss, and storage processes (Kult et al, 2015). Due to the extensiveness of surface mining in Central Appalachia, research on the hydrologic impact at the landscape scale is important for determining altered stream flows and volumes within the disturbed area and downstream areas (Ferrari et al, 2009).…”