Regionale Klimamodellierung

Projected changes in extreme precipitation characteristics for Central Eastern Germany (21st century, model‐based analysis)

“…Generally, Regional climate models (RCMs) better represent spatial distribution, frequency and intensity of precipitation than GCMs, and, thus, they are needed to downscale GCMs outputs to a resolution of 10 × 10 km to 50 × 50 km. This higher horizontal resolution allows for an improved simulation of circulation features and leads to improvements in the simulation of orographic precipitation and related topographic effects (Rauscher et al ., ; Schädler et al ., ; Jacob et al ., ).…”

“…Many studies have explored future changes in daily extreme precipitation characteristics in different European regions using RCM multi‐model ensembles (e.g. Frei et al ., ; Fowler et al ., ; Giorgi and Coppola, ; Rauscher et al ., ; Herrera et al ., ; Schädler et al ., ; Bernhofer et al ., ; Kyselý et al ., ; Heinrich and Gobiet, ; Jacob et al ., ). Mostly, increases in frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events were in focus.…”

Is It Possible to Distinguish Global and Regional Climate Change from Urban Land Cover Induced Signals? A Mid-Latitude City Example

“…The frequency of the occurrence of extreme high temperatures increases, and longer heat waves are detected [14]. Based on the EURO-CORDEX multi-model ensemble, winter temperatures are projected to increase by 1.2-3.2 K for RCP4.5 and 3.2-4.6 K for RCP8.5 for the end of the century (2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000); summer temperatures are projected to increase by 1.3-2.6 K for RCP4.5 and 2.7-4.8 K for RCP8.5 (2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000) [15]. Furthermore, extreme high temperatures and heat waves are projected to occur with increasing frequency, which is much more pronounced in RCP8.5 [14,15].…”

“…Here, the annual mean temperature is projected to increase in the range of 1-5 K according to [17]. Based on the EURO-CORDEX multi-model ensemble-the same ensemble as used in [15] for Germany-winter temperatures are projected to increase in the Metropolitan Region of Hamburg by 1.1-3.1 K for RCP4.5 and 2.9-4.4 K for RCP8.5 for the end of the century; summer temperatures are projected to increase by 1.2-2.5 K for RCP4.5 and 2.1-4.3 K for RCP8.5 (2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000) (own analysis).…”

“…Climate projections for the 21st century simulate further increases of winter precipitation, whereas for summer, no robust changes can be derived. Based on the EURO-CORDEX multi-model ensemble, the projected precipitation changes at the end of the century (relative to are in a range of −3% to +17% for RCP4.5 and +8% to +32% for RCP8.5 [15].…”