Regional winners and losers in future UK energy system transitions

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the integration of institutional perspectives on energy system transitions into formal energy economic modelling. The perspectives of key UK energy system stakeholders have been used to develop three socio-technical narratives of energy system change that are quantified in a 24-region techno-economic model of the country. Implementing these three narratives in the model environment allows their feasibility for meeting climate targets to be assessed as well as articulating their implied sub-national regional outlooks for technologies and investment. The latter elements are discussed in light of the regional socioeconomic and demographic landscape. The study highlights some of the regional political dimensions associated with future investment targeting in the UK energy system. In particular, energy policy decisions may create tensions between the four different UK government administrations as well as raising important questions about regional economic development and how an equitable energy transition can be achieved for all. Highlights Prominent UK transition scenarios adapted into a whole energy system model  Integration process bridges between socio-technical theory and energy economic modelling  Model spatial detail used to relate geographical impacts to real-world regional actors  Tensions exposed between sub-regional optimality and national optimality  Discussion framed around the complex regional political geography of the UK

Uncertainty, politics, and technology: Expert perceptions on energy transitions in the United Kingdom

“…Their success in the policy domain can be explained by two factors; firstly, by being positioned to allow for consideration of new goals and configurations for the energy system as UK energy policy is re-orientated to face the decarbonisation challenge, and secondly, by functioning as a 'boundary object', both connecting and meeting the needs of different science and policy communities, and providing and supporting a shared understanding of the policy problem [24]. Model-based analyses have provided policymakers with a view on the overall affordability of the energy transition [23], sketched out multiple potential transition pathways towards the normative target [26], and demonstrated the path-dependent nature of energy system choices [27].…”

“…There was also an emphasis by a range of experts, mainly from the NGO group, on the need to demonstrate equitable policies (En3) for the transition as a means of gaining broader public acceptance. Participants opined that government may need to explicitly acknowledge that there will be future winners and losers [26], and tailor policies towards mitigating the impacts on losers e.g. through avoiding regressive measures.…”

Assessing qualitative and quantitative dimensions of uncertainty in energy modelling for policy support in the United Kingdom

“…In this paper, we demonstrate how practitioners can broaden the scope of strategic advice given to energy system decision makers by holistically considering both qualitative and quantitative dimensions of uncertainty using the NUSAP approach. For this research, we have used a prominent UK energy systems model, the Energy Systems Modelling Environment (ESME) [34], which is under active development and has been used for academic [35,36], industry [37] and government [38] applications. We describe the application of the NUSAP protocol for assessing the qualitative dimension of uncertainty and show how this can be combined with insights from a quantitative mathematical sensitivity analysis (using the Morris Method).…”

Actors behaving badly: Exploring the modelling of non-optimal behaviour in energy transitions

“…[120] and [121]). It is also possible that for meaningful policy engagement, models might need to be applied in a more iterative, participatory fashion with key decision makers [76], following a "modelling as a service" strategy where policymakers participate more actively in the process, rather than a "modelling as a product" approach where analysis is undertaken remotely from stakeholders and later presented as a fait accompli [122].…”