Regional Variability in Drought as a Function of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Elder, Renée C.; Balling, Robert C.; Cerveny, Randall S.; Krahenbuhl, Daniel

doi:10.18475/cjos.v48i1.a5

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(42 reference statements)

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“…In much of the tropics, the El Niño phase of ENSO is associated with drier, sunnier, and hotter conditions, whereas the La Niña phase is associated with wetter, cloudier, and cooler conditions (Holmgren, Scheffer, Ezcurra, Gutiérrez, & Mohren, 2001;Marengo, Tomasella, Alves, Soares, & Rodriguez, 2011). The AMO also influences climate variation at our site and other areas in the region (Elder, Balling, Cerveny, & Krahenbuhl, 2014). Tropical tree recruitment, growth, and mortality all vary among years in relation to such local climate variation, and thus, stand-level productivity and mortality fluxes vary as well.…”

Section: Temporal Climate Variation In the Tropics And Its Impactsmentioning

confidence: 83%

Testing for changes in biomass dynamics in large‐scale forest datasets

Rutishauser

Wright

Condit

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

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Tropical forest responses to climate and atmospheric change are critical to the future of the global carbon budget. Recent studies have reported increases in estimated above‐ground biomass (EAGB) stocks, productivity, and mortality in old‐growth tropical forests. These increases could reflect a shift in forest functioning due to global change and/or long‐lasting recovery from past disturbance. We introduce a novel approach to disentangle the relative contributions of these mechanisms by decomposing changes in whole‐plot biomass fluxes into contributions from changes in the distribution of gap‐successional stages and changes in fluxes for a given stage. Using 30 years of forest dynamic data at Barro Colorado Island, Panama, we investigated temporal variation in EAGB fluxes as a function of initial EAGB (EAGBi) in 10 × 10 m quadrats. Productivity and mortality fluxes both increased strongly with initial quadrat EAGB. The distribution of EAGB (and thus EAGBi) across quadrats hardly varied over 30 years (and seven censuses). EAGB fluxes as a function of EAGBi varied largely and significantly among census intervals, with notably higher productivity in 1985–1990 associated with recovery from the 1982–1983 El Niño event. Variation in whole‐plot fluxes among census intervals was explained overwhelmingly by variation in fluxes as a function of EAGBi, with essentially no contribution from changes in EAGBi distributions. The high observed temporal variation in productivity and mortality suggests that this forest is very sensitive to climate variability. There was no consistent long‐term trend in productivity, mortality, or biomass in this forest over 30 years, although the temporal variability in productivity and mortality was so strong that it could well mask a substantial trend. Accurate prediction of future tropical forest carbon budgets will require accounting for disturbance‐recovery dynamics and understanding temporal variability in productivity and mortality.

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Section: Temporal Climate Variation In the Tropics And Its Impactsmentioning

confidence: 83%

Testing for changes in biomass dynamics in large‐scale forest datasets

Rutishauser

Wright

Condit

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

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“…To the authors' knowledge, such correlations had not been previously described for our study region, but Montero‐Martínez et al (2022) reported an increase in precipitation and temperature during AMO positive phase in central Mexico. Also, Elder et al (2014) and Park et al (2017) described an influence of AMO and PDO in drought events in Mexico, which stress the importance of keeping track of these ocean–atmosphere oscillations in future assessments of local climate trends.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization, variability and long‐term trends on local climate in a Mexican tropical dry forest

Takano-Rojas

Murray‐Tortarolo

Maass

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Based on 40 years of meteorological data, we characterized and analysed long‐term climatic trends in the Chamela‐Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve on the Pacific coast of central Mexico. The region is still covered by a large proportion of well‐preserved tropical dry forest, characterized by a short period of rain and a dry season of around 8 months. We found a sustained temperature increase which is likely driven by global climate change. An increasing trend in rainfall was also found, but the trend was detected only during the wet season. Correspondingly, an increase in runoff during the rainfall season was also detected; this seems to be linked with an increasing number of intense rainfall events, rather than an increase in the total number of rainy days. El Niño years are likely to present below average precipitation during the wet season and above average precipitation during the dry season. The opposite is expected during La Niña years, when tropical cyclones are likely to come closer to the coast and cause intense rainfall events during the hurricane season. As many of the studied variables are likely to change under climate change scenarios, our results highlight the need to understand the expected impacts of global climate change on tropical dry forests. In particular, it is necessary to monitor changes in water availability to anticipate its consequences for the forest and the human communities that depend on it.

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“…Subsequent El Niño conditions extended from September 2018 through May 2019 causing widespread drought. Given that Elder et al (2014) found a positive correlation between drought conditions between the AMO and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI; negative values of SPEI indicate drought). it appears that combined AMO and El Niño-like conditions contributed to the severe drought that Barbuda faced in 2018/2019.…”

Section: Future Climate Change In Barbudamentioning

confidence: 99%

A long-term perspective of climate change in the Caribbean and its impacts on the island of Barbuda

Burn¹,

Boger²,

Holmes³

et al. 2022

Barbuda

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Small Island Developing States (SIDS) of the Caribbean are vulnerable to the effects of climatic change. The damaging impacts of contemporary sea-level rise and changing rainfall patterns are clear and have had a significant influence on Barbuda's physical, economic and socio-cultural landscapes. In 2017 Hurricane Irma made landfall in Barbuda as a major category 5 hurricane, which led to widespread devastation and the evacuation of the island's entire population. The passage of this large storm is consistent with a recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity; however, the attribution of individual catastrophic events to climate change, whether natural or anthropogenic, remains a scientific challenge. Nevertheless, the lasting impacts of Hurricane Irma in Barbuda emphasises the vulnerability of SIDS to regional-and global-scale climatic phenomena. In this chapter, we show how climate has changed in the Caribbean over different spatial and temporal scales and how varying natural and anthropogenic factors have shaped Barbuda's climatic history. We highlight projections of 21 st century climate change for the Caribbean region and its likely impacts on Barbuda's coastal ecosystems, potable groundwater resources and natural heritage.

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Regional Variability in Drought as a Function of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Abstract: Thus, the findings of this research can assist in informing drought preparedness strategies to mitigate significant losses due to drought.

Cited by 8 publications

References 30 publications

Testing for changes in biomass dynamics in large‐scale forest datasets

Testing for changes in biomass dynamics in large‐scale forest datasets

Characterization, variability and long‐term trends on local climate in a Mexican tropical dry forest

A long-term perspective of climate change in the Caribbean and its impacts on the island of Barbuda

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