Regional Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Combination Prediction Method Based on Fluctuant/Smooth Components Division

Li, Yalong; Yan, Licheng; He, Hao; Zha, Wenting

doi:10.3389/fenrg.2022.840519

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…In fact, due to the quantity and quality of the source data of power plants, the traditional neural network photovoltaic power forecasting model is restricted by not considering environmental factors [22], thereby lacking reasonable utilization of complex sequence information. In addition, considering the nonlinear change in photovoltaic power and multiple environment sequence information, the convergence rate of the model slows down and overfitting appears with the increase in network input variables [23][24][25]. At the same time, the accuracy of photovoltaic power forecasting is also affected by time-varying factors [26,27].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Novel Improved Variational Mode Decomposition-Temporal Convolutional Network-Gated Recurrent Unit with Multi-Head Attention Mechanism for Enhanced Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

Fu,

Zhang,

Xie

2024

Electronics

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Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing renewable energy integration into the grid, necessitating accurate predictions to mitigate the inherent variability of solar energy generation. We propose a novel forecasting model that combines improved variational mode decomposition (IVMD) with the temporal convolutional network-gated recurrent unit (TCN-GRU) architecture, enriched with a multi-head attention mechanism. By focusing on four key environmental factors influencing PV output, the proposed IVMD-TCN-GRU framework targets a significant research gap in renewable energy forecasting methodologies. Initially, leveraging the sparrow search algorithm (SSA), we optimize the parameters of VMD, including the mode component K-value and penalty factor, based on the minimum envelope entropy principle. The optimized VMD then decomposes PV power, while the TCN-GRU model harnesses TCN’s proficiency in learning local temporal features and GRU’s capability in rapidly modeling sequence data, while leveraging multi-head attention to better utilize the global correlation information within sequence data. Through this design, the model adeptly captures the correlations within time series data, demonstrating superior performance in prediction tasks. Subsequently, the SSA is employed to optimize GRU parameters, and the decomposed PV power mode components and environmental feature attributes are inputted into the TCN-GRU neural network. This facilitates dynamic temporal modeling of multivariate feature sequences. Finally, the predicted values of each component are summed to realize PV power forecasting. Validation using real data from a PV station corroborates that the novel model demonstrates a substantial reduction in RMSE and MAE of up to 55.1% and 54.5%, respectively, particularly evident in instances of pronounced photovoltaic power fluctuations during inclement weather conditions. The proposed method exhibits marked improvements in accuracy compared to traditional PV power prediction methods, underscoring its significance in enhancing forecasting precision and ensuring the secure scheduling and stable operation of power systems.

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