Regional simulation of the low‐level monsoon winds over the Gulf of California and southwestern United States

Anderson, Bruce T.; Roads, John O.; Chen, Shyh-Chin; Juang, Hann‐Ming Henry

doi:10.1029/2000jd900161

Cited by 58 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Res.). High-resolution (25 and 10 km) versions of RSM have been evaluated and used to model California and southwestern U.S. climate by Chen et al (1999) and Anderson et al (2000).…”

Section: ) Statistical Schemementioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting and Downscaling ENSO Impacts on Intraseasonal Precipitation Statistics in California: The 1997/98 Event

Gershunov¹,

Barnett²,

Cayan³

et al. 2000

J. Hydrometeor

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Three long-range forecasting methods have been evaluated for prediction and downscaling of seasonal and intraseasonal precipitation statistics in California. Full-statistical, hybrid-dynamical-statistical and full-dynamical approaches have been used to forecast El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related total precipitation, daily precipitation frequency, and average intensity anomalies during the January-March season. For El Niño winters, the hybrid approach emerges as the best performer, while La Niña forecasting skill is poor. The full-statistical forecasting method features reasonable forecasting skill for both La Niña and El Niño winters. The performance of the full-dynamical approach could not be evaluated as rigorously as that of the other two forecasting schemes. Although the full-dynamical forecasting approach is expected to outperform simpler forecasting schemes in the long run, evidence is presented to conclude that, at present, the full-dynamical forecasting approach is the least viable of the three, at least in California. The authors suggest that operational forecasting of any intraseasonal temperature, precipitation, or streamflow statistic derivable from the available records is possible now for ENSOextreme years.

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“…Res.). High-resolution (25 and 10 km) versions of RSM have been evaluated and used to model California and southwestern U.S. climate by Chen et al (1999) and Anderson et al (2000).…”

Section: ) Statistical Schemementioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting and Downscaling ENSO Impacts on Intraseasonal Precipitation Statistics in California: The 1997/98 Event

Gershunov¹,

Barnett²,

Cayan³

et al. 2000

J. Hydrometeor

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“…• 28 The nesting method is a one-way, noninteractive procedure designed to calculate regional perturbations (or adjustments) of the RSM1 and RSM2 to the large-scale background fields provided by the coarser-resolution GSM and RSM 1, respectively. Although the one-way, noninteractive procedure does not allow fine-scale changes in surface and upper air fields to feed back on the larger-scale atmospheric conditions, the global model is reinitialized every 24 hours from the NCEP Reanalysis data, resulting in large-scale fields that are dynamically consistent with the observed fields [Anderson, 1998] Although the hydrologic cycle will not be examined in detail here, these results give us continued motivation to investigate the dynamic forcing of surge-event wind fields as a step toward understanding the intraseasonal variability found in both the simulated and observed precipitation fields. The correlation plots, plotted at the 90% confidence level for approximately 100 independent events (the number of synoptic events over the 11-year period that had coherent surface wind speeds greater than the threshold), indicate that the low pressure west of Baja California is significant at all levels.…”

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confidence: 99%

Large‐scale forcing of summertime monsoon surges over the Gulf of California and the southwestern United States

Anderson¹,

Roads²,

Chen³

2000

J. Geophys. Res.

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Abstract. Synoptic forcing of the Gulf of California summertime low-level wind field is described using a nested regional modeling system. Under appropriate synoptic conditions, strong surge events develop that are characterized by persistent, vertically extensive (1-2 km) southerly flow extending along the entire Gulf of California and into Arizona, California, and even southern Nevada. These surge periods are initiated either by tropical-cyclone activity to the south of Baja California or by the westward propagation of lower tropospheric troughs from over the Sierra Madre Occidental to the eastern Pacific. The flow over the Gulf is primarily geostrophic and is associated with the presence of these low-pressure centers to the south and west of Baja California.

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“…A previous version of the RSM was used to simulate and analyze regional climate characteristics of precipitation (Chen et al 1999, Hong andLeetma 1999), low-level winds (Anderson et al 2000;2001;, U.S. water and energy budgets , and climate (Roads et al 2002). The current model has also been used for dynamical downscaling from ECHAM3 seasonal climate prediction over Nordeste Brazil (Nobre et al 2001), and global change scenarios over the U.S. (Han and Roads 2003), and eastern Asia (Chen 2001;Chen et al 2002).…”

Section: Regional Spectral Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Soil Moisture on Regional Spectral Model Simulations for South America

Chen¹,

Roads²

2005

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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ABSTRACT1 USDA Forest Service, Riverside, California, USA 2 Experimental Climate Prediction Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA * Corresponding author address: Prof. Shyh-Chin Chen, USDA Forest Service, Riverside, California, USA; E-mail: schen@fs.fed.us A two-year (March 1997 -March 1999) regional simulation using the regional spectral model (RSM) with a 50-km grid covering South America, bounded and initialized by the NCEP/NCAR 28 vertical levels T62 spectral resolution reanalyses is described.Initial experiments showed that the RSM had a severe dry bias in the soil moisture that adversely impacted the precipitation. The dry bias was presumably a response to the positive feedback between imperfect model parameterization schemes and the soil moisture module in the model. This dry bias was corrected in two additional experiments by modifying the deep soil moisture in the model during the integration. The first experiment prescribed the daily soil moisture in the deep second layer from the driving reanalysis; the second experiment utilized observed precipitation, to interactively correct the deep soil moisture during the integration. Both experiments had less bias than the reanalysis precipitation. However, regional precipitation temporal variations were only as good as, if not marginally better than, the reanalysis precipitation when validated against observed 0.5-degree gridded data. The experiment with interactively corrected soil moisture provided the best simulation and had better anomaly threat scores at all precipitation intensities than the one with the specified soil moisture values from the reanalysis. Until current coupled land-atmosphere regional model soil moisture simulation biases can be substantially reduced, they can at least be corrected by using observed precipitation.

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Regional simulation of the low‐level monsoon winds over the Gulf of California and southwestern United States

Cited by 58 publications

References 28 publications

Predicting and Downscaling ENSO Impacts on Intraseasonal Precipitation Statistics in California: The 1997/98 Event

Predicting and Downscaling ENSO Impacts on Intraseasonal Precipitation Statistics in California: The 1997/98 Event

Large‐scale forcing of summertime monsoon surges over the Gulf of California and the southwestern United States

Impact of Soil Moisture on Regional Spectral Model Simulations for South America

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