Regional integrated modelling of climate change impacts on natural resources and resource usage in semi-arid Northeast Brazil

Krol, Martinus S.; Bronstert, Axel

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.07.022

Cited by 95 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Sediments with higher fine particle contents will tend to absorb more phosphorus and show better phosphorus buffering capacities due to their higher surface areas. Organic matter is very important for maintaining soil moisture (Krol and Bronstert, 2007) contributing to sediment phosphorus concentrations and for phosphorus cycling (de Assis et al, 2010). Ohno et al (2005) also reported a linear relationship between dissolved organic carbon and water-soluble P concentrations in soil extracts, implying organic matter may increase soil P availability.…”

Section: Buffering Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phosphorus sorption and buffering mechanisms in suspended sediments from the Yangtze Estuary and Hangzhou Bay, China

Whelan

Wang

et al. 2013

Biogeosciences

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The adsorption isotherm and the mechanism of the buffering effect are important controls on phosphorus (P) behaviors in estuaries and are important for estimating phosphate concentrations in aquatic environments. In this paper, we derive phosphate adsorption isotherms in order to investigate sediment adsorption and buffering capacity for phosphorus discharged from sewage outfalls in the Yangtze Estuary and Hangzhou Bay near Shanghai, China. Experiments were also carried out at different temperatures in order to explore the buffering effects for phosphate. The results show that P sorption in sediments with low fine particle fractions was best described using exponential equations. Some P interactions between water and sediment may be caused by the precipitation of CaHPO₄ from Ca²⁺ and HPO₄²⁻ when the phosphate concentration in the liquid phase is high. Results from the buffering experiments suggest that the Zero Equilibrium Phosphate Concentrations (EPC₀) vary from 0.014 mg L⁻¹ to 0.061 mg L⁻¹, which are consistent with measured phosphate concentrations in water samples collected at the same time as sediment sampling. Values of EPC₀ and linear sorption coefficients (K) in sediments with high fine particle and organic matter contents are relatively high, which implies that they have high buffering capacity. Both EPC₀ and K increase with increasing temperature, indicating a higher P buffering capacity at high temperatures

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Section: Buffering Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phosphorus sorption and buffering mechanisms in suspended sediments from the Yangtze Estuary and Hangzhou Bay, China

Whelan

Wang

et al. 2013

Biogeosciences

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“…Although good correlations were found with as little as 11 catchments in the same physiographic region [Seibert, 1999], often hundreds of catchments are used spanning a wide variety of physiographic characteristics [e.g., Institute of Hydrology, 1999;Parajka et al, 2005]. Such data are not available in many practical applications, in particular in developing regions where land use conflicts may be widespread and the need for predictions of ungauged basins urgent [e.g., Buytaert et al, 2006a;Krol and Bronstert, 2006].…”

Section: Current Regionalization Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regionalization as a learning process

Buytaert

Beven

2009

Water Resources Research

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[1] This paper deals with the uncertainty involved in geographical migration of hydrological model structures, commonly known as regionalization. Regionalization relies on the hypothesis that calibrated parameter sets from a donor catchment can be useful to predict discharge of an ungauged catchment. However, since every catchment is unique, model parameters need to be adapted for differences between a calibration and a prediction catchment, either by transformation or further selection. This process is inherently uncertain. Model parameters, and therefore the required changes, do not exactly represent quantities that we can measure or calculate. This paper outlines an approach to learn about how model parameters should be transformed between a gauged and an ungauged catchment. The approach consists of an iterative process, in which a model structure is applied successively to gauged catchments. After each step, parameter behavior is evaluated as a function of catchment properties and intercatchment similarities. The method is illustrated with an application of a customized version of TOPMODEL to a set of catchments in the Ecuadorian Andes. First, parameter sets are generated for a donor catchment. This model ensemble is then used to predict the discharge of the other catchments, after applying a stochastic parameter transformation to account for the uncertainty in the model migration. The parameter transformation is then evaluated and improved before further application. The case study shows that accurate predictions can be made for predicted basins. At the same time, knowledge is gained about model behavior and potential model limitations.

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“…On the physical side, climate models show enormous potential impact of future climate changes on the hydrology of the semi-arid region of Brazil, affecting river flow, water storage and irrigated production (Krol and Bronstert 2007;Silva et al 2010). Models combined with hydrological observations from catchments in the area indicate the possibility of substantial reduction in surface water availability (Montenegro and Ragab 2012) and an ongoing process of environmental dryness (Rodrigues da Silva 2004).…”

Section: Importance Of Climate Change For Smallholder Farmersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change adaptation strategies for smallholder farmers in the Brazilian Sertão

Burney

Cesano²,

Russell

et al. 2014

Climatic Change

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Climate models agree that semi-arid regions around the world are likely to experience increased rainfall variability and longer droughts in the coming decades. In regions dependent on agriculture, such changes threaten to aggravate existing food insecurity and economic underdevelopment, and to push migration to urban areas. In the Brazilian semi-arid region, the Sertão, farmers' vulnerability to climate-past, present, and future-stems from several factors, including low yielding production practices and reliance on scarce and seasonally variable water resources. Using interpolated local climate data, we show that, since 1962, in the Bacia do Jacuípe-one of the poorest regions in the Sertão of Bahía state-average temperatures have increased~2°C and rainfall has decreased~350 mm. Over the same time period, average milk productivity-the main rural economic activity in the county-has fallen while in Brazil and in Bahía as a whole milk productivity has increased dramatically. This paper teases apart the drivers of climate vulnerability of the Bacia do Jacuípe in relation to the rest of Bahía. We then present the results of a suite of pilot projects by Adapta Sertão, a coalition of organizations working to improve the adaptive capacity of farmers living in the semi-arid region. By testing a number of different technologies and arrangements at the farm level, Adapta Sertão has shown that interventions focused on balanced animal diets and efficient irrigation systems can help reduce (but not eliminate) the dependence of production systems

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Regional integrated modelling of climate change impacts on natural resources and resource usage in semi-arid Northeast Brazil

Cited by 95 publications

References 23 publications

Phosphorus sorption and buffering mechanisms in suspended sediments from the Yangtze Estuary and Hangzhou Bay, China

Phosphorus sorption and buffering mechanisms in suspended sediments from the Yangtze Estuary and Hangzhou Bay, China

Regionalization as a learning process

Climate change adaptation strategies for smallholder farmers in the Brazilian Sertão

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