Regional impacts of climatic change on forests in the state of Brandenburg, Germany

Lindner, Marcus; Bugmann, Harald; Lasch, Petra; Flechsig, Michael; Crämer, Wolfgang

doi:10.1016/s0168-1923(96)02381-7

Cited by 58 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…This is in accordance with a bundle of European studies that identified soil water availability in early summer as the main growth limiting factor for oak (Kelly et al 2002, Drobyshev et al 2008, Friedrichs et al 2009a, Scharnweber et al 2011). Due to climate change, drought periods are expected to be more frequent in the future (Lindner et al 1997, Grigoryan et al 2010, probably inducing growth reductions of oak in northeastern Germany.…”

Section: Pedunculate Oakmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate change on tree-ring growth of Scots pine, common beech and pedunculate oak in northeastern Germany

Bauwe¹,

Jurasinski²,

Scharnweber³

et al. 2016

iForest

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Tree growth depends, among other factors, largely on the prevailing climatic conditions. Therefore, changes to tree growth patterns are to be expected under climate change. Here, we analyze the tree-ring growth response of three major European tree species to projected future climate across a climatic (mostly precipitation) gradient in northeastern Germany. We used monthly data for temperature, precipitation, and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) over multiple time scales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) to construct models of tree-ring growth for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) at three pure stands, and for common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) at three mature mixed stands. The regression models were derived using a two-step approach based on partial least squares regression (PLSR) to extract potentially well explaining variables followed by ordinary least squares regression (OLSR) to consolidate the models to the least number of variables while retaining high explanatory power. The stability of the models was tested through a comprehensive calibration-verification scheme. All models were successfully verified with R²s ranging from 0.21 for the western pine stand to 0.62 for the beech stand in the east. For growth prediction, climate data forecasted until 2100 by the regional climate model WETTREG2010 based on the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario was used. For beech and oak, growth rates will likely decrease until the end of the 21 st century. For pine, modeled growth trends vary and range from a slight growth increase to a weak decrease in growth rates. The climatic gradient across the study area will possibly affect the future growth of oak with larger growth reductions towards the drier east. For beech, site-specific adaptations seem to override the influence of the climatic gradient. We conclude that Scots pine has great potential to remain resilient to projected climate change without any greater impairment, whereas common beech and pedunculate oak will likely face lesser growth under the expected warmer and dryer climate conditions. The results call for an adaptation of forest management to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for beech and oak.

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Section: Pedunculate Oakmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate change on tree-ring growth of Scots pine, common beech and pedunculate oak in northeastern Germany

Bauwe¹,

Jurasinski²,

Scharnweber³

et al. 2016

iForest

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“…Kienast andKuhn 1989, Bugmann 1994). Just recently Lindner et al (1997) employed two gap models in a regional climate change impact assessment for the State of Brandenburg (Germany) where the site and climate data necessary to initialize the model runs were lumped at a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km 2 . However, this lumping procedure leads to synthetic "average" site conditions within each gridcell, thus blurring the effect of site characteristics on forest response to a changing climate.…”

Section: Smapmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…"clear cut conditions") aiming at the steady state species composition as the only assessment endpoint (e.g. Lindner et al 1997). Despite the obvious relevance of todays forest composition for future forest development very few model-based climate change impact studies considered today's forest composition and structure.…”

Section: Smapmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite the obvious relevance of todays forest composition for future forest development very few model-based climate change impact studies considered today's forest composition and structure. One of the rare exemptions was provided by Lindner (1998) who simulated approximately 200 ha of managed forests under a climate change scenario. In a risk assessment Kienast et al (1996) used the site data available for sample plots of the national forest inventory of Switzerland to feed a static climate-sensitive equilibrium model of the potential natural vegetation.…”

Section: Smapmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The sensitivity of central European mountain forests to scenarios of climatic change: methodological frame for a large-scale risk assessment

Lexer¹,

Hönninger²,

Scheifinger³

et al. 2000

Silva Fenn.

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The methodological framework of a large-scale risk assessment for Austrian forests under scenarios of climatic change is presented. A recently developed 3D-patch model is initialized with ground-true soil and vegetation data from sample plots of the Austrian Forest Inventory (AFI). Temperature and precipitation data of the current climate are interpolated from a network of more than 600 weather stations to the sample plots of the AFI. Vegetation development is simulated under current climate (âcontrol runâ) and under climate change scenarios starting from today's forest composition and structure. Similarity of species composition and accumulated biomass between these two runs at various points in time were used as assessment criteria. An additive preference function which is based on Saatyâs AHP is employed to synthesize these criteria to an overall index of the adaptation potential of current forests to a changing climate. The presented methodology is demonstrated for a small sample from the Austrian Forest Inventory. The forest model successfully simulated equilibrium species composition under current climatic conditions spatially explicit in a heterogenous landscape based on ground-true data. At none of the simulated sites an abrupt forest dieback did occur due to climate change impacts. However, substantial changes occured with regard to species composition of the potential natural vegetation (PNV).

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“…Computational limitations are the main reason why the spatial resolution of GCMs is limited to a few hundred kilometers. However, impact assessments of the effects of climatic changes on terrestrial ecosystems require climate change scenario data at much finer scales (Kienast et al 1996, Lindner et al 1997, Lexer et al 2000. Moreover, it is estimated that the skillful scale of GCMs is about 8 times the grid scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change scenarios at Austrian National Forest Inventory sites

Matulla¹,

Groll²,

Kromp-Kolb³

et al. 2002

Clim. Res.

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Regional risk assessments for the potential effects of climate change rely on plausible small-scale climate change scenario data. To bridge the gap between the coarse scale of general circulation models and the local scale of approximately 11 000 sample sites of the Austrian National Forest Inventory (AFI), a seasonally stratified statistical downscaling procedure was applied to a control run and 2 transient experiments of ECHAM4/OPYC3, which are based on the trace gas only or trace gas plus sulphate scenario IPCC IS92a. We fitted multiple linear regression (MLR) models for the micro-scale monthly precipitation and temperature for each AFI point. The meteorological data at the AFI sites were obtained by interpolation of measurements from the dense network of Austrian weather stations for the period 1961-1995. The macro-scale predictors were principal components of monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (850 and 700 hPa geopotential height, 850 hPa temperature and 700 hPa relative humidity). The results show spatial and temporal heterogeneity for both temperature and precipitation. In case of temperature MLR leads to increases from +1.4 to + 4.0ºC (trace gas only integration) and from +1.1 to + 2.9ºC (trace gas plus sulphate integration) for a period of about 55 yr relative to the 1961-1995 climatology. The regionalized precipitation changes are both negative and positive. Values range from -44 to + 26% (trace gas only integration) and from -29 to +26% (trace gas plus sulphate integration). As expected, the explained variability for temperature was higher than for precipitation and depended on the season. From a validation experiment for model calibration we conclude that MLR shows reliable results for temperature. Even in the case of precipitation the method seems to yield plausible results. Both temperature and precipitation were better reproduced for winter than for summer. KEY WORDS: Climate change · Downscaling · Principal component analysis · Multiple regression · Forest inventoryResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

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Regional impacts of climatic change on forests in the state of Brandenburg, Germany

Cited by 58 publications

References 31 publications

Impact of climate change on tree-ring growth of Scots pine, common beech and pedunculate oak in northeastern Germany

Impact of climate change on tree-ring growth of Scots pine, common beech and pedunculate oak in northeastern Germany

The sensitivity of central European mountain forests to scenarios of climatic change: methodological frame for a large-scale risk assessment

Climate change scenarios at Austrian National Forest Inventory sites

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