Regional Impacts of Climate and Land Cover on Ecosystem Water Retention Services in the Upper Yangtze River Basin

Abstract

Water retention is an important factor in ecosystem services, owing to its relationships with climate and land-cover change; however, quantifying the independent and combined impacts of these variables remains a challenge. We use scenario analysis and the InVEST model to assess individual or combined impacts of climate and land cover on water retention in the Upper Yangtze River Basin. Water retention decreased from 1986 to 2015 at a rate of 2.97 mm/10a in response to increasing precipitation (3.94 mm/10a) and potential evapotranspiration (16.47 mm/10a). The rate of water retention change showed regional variability (from 68 to −18 mm/a), with some eastern regions experiencing an increase and most other regions experiencing a decrease. Farmland showed the highest decrease (10,772 km2), with land mainly converted into forest (58.17%) and shrub land (21.13%) from 2000 to 2015. The impact of climate change (−12.02 mm) on water retention generally was greater than the impact of land cover change (−4.14 mm), at the basin scale. Among 22 climate zones, 77.27% primarily were impacted by climate change; 22.73% primarily were impacted by land cover change. Our results demonstrate that both individualistic and integrated approaches toward climate and vegetation management is necessary to mitigate the impacts of climate change on water resources.

Effects of Climate and Anthropogenic Drivers on Surface Water Area in the Southeastern United States

“…In contrast to our findings, Xu et al., 2019 found that climate change had a greater impact on water retention than land cover change in the Upper Yangtze River Basin in western China. However, they used a process‐based model and used land cover to calculate evapotranspiration as a proxy for anthropogenic drivers (Xu et al., 2019). We used data‐driven models that empirically incorporated land cover.…”

“…The relationships of our climate variables, positive for precipitation anomalies and negative for maximum temperature anomalies (Figure 5), to percent surface water is similar to what other studies have found (Liu et al., 2021; Lockaby et al., 2013; Tulbure & Broich, 2019). In contrast to our findings, Xu et al., 2019 found that climate change had a greater impact on water retention than land cover change in the Upper Yangtze River Basin in western China. However, they used a process‐based model and used land cover to calculate evapotranspiration as a proxy for anthropogenic drivers (Xu et al., 2019).…”

“…Similar to our results, Xu et al. (2019) found that both climate and land cover change were impactful on water retention, and they found that the impacts of each vary significantly across their study region. They and others have also concluded that adjusting land cover can be used as an effective and direct way to mitigate the impacts of climate change (Xu et al., 2019; Zeng et al., 2020).…”

“…While many studies focus on the impacts of climate change on water resources (Xu et al., 2019), we assessed the impact of climate and anthropogenic drivers independently and in combination. We found that anthropogenic drivers were more influential in estimating percent surface water area than climate drivers in our study region.…”

“…Many of these models do not account for human drivers such as population density and LULC change or intensity (Hostetler & Alder, 2016; Thrasher et al., 2013; Wada et al., 2017). Using data‐driven approaches, we are beginning to quantify the spatiotemporal distributions of surface water dynamics with climate and anthropogenic drivers independently and synergistically (L. Li et al., 2019; Tulbure & Broich, 2019; Xu et al., 2019).…”