Regional features of changes in winter extreme temperatures and precipitation in Russia in 1970–2015

Abstract

Te space-time dynamics of the occurrence of winter extreme events is investigated on the territory of Russia in 1970-2015 on the basis of daily observations at weather stations. It was found that a whole on the territory a noticeable increase in the occurrence of days with extremely high daily temperatures and daily precipitation and a decrease in the occurrence of extremely cold days was noted. Te most noticeable changes happened in the European part of Russia, where at the beginning of the XXI century occurrence of the extremes was greater than during the previous thirty years. Note also that at the beginning of XXI century in Southern Siberia increase of occurrences of both daily maximum and daily minimum temperature was concurrent. Tis combination appears to be caused by the increase in temperature variability in the region due to the alternation of winters with extreme frosts and warmer and wet winters. Te increase in the frequency of extremely high temperatures in the European part of Russia could have been caused by both general warming and the increased influence of AMO. An increase in the frequency of extreme high and low temperatures in the south of Siberia may be due to the formation of an anticyclonic circulation anomaly with a center near the coast of the Kara Sea, which is responsible for advection of cold air masses from the northeast. As well as cyclonic formation in southern Siberia, along the eastern periphery of which temperate latitudes can receive anomalously warm air from the subtropics.

Mapping temperature and precipitation extremes under changing climate (on the example of The Ural region, Russia)

“…The similar changes in temperature and precipitation extremes have been observed during last decades in the most of Northern Eurasia (Bulygina et al 2007;Zolotokrylin and Cherenkova 2017;Titkova et al 2018). However, the notable regional variations in climatic extremes changes are found within the Ural region, which may be related to both changes in the atmospheric circulation and geographical features of the location of weather stations.…”

“…In general, the positive trend of minimum winter temperature corresponds to the observed decrease of temperature variance in high and middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (Screen, 2014;Titkova et al 2018). However, the regional variations are related to other factors.…”

“…A relatively weak positive trend in the minimum winter temperature observed west of the Polar Ural may be related to the increase of the frequency of arctic air mass advection during cold season. The observed anticyclonic anomaly of 500hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure over the Barents and Kara Seas may contribute to this process (Titkova et al 2018).…”

“…Also, the rise in duration both dry and wet periods was found for many regions, which indicated a significant clustering of precipitation over time and an increase of probability of both floods and droughts events. Titkova et al (2018) compared the frequency of extreme climatic events in winter season for 1970-2000 and 2001-2015. A significant decrease of very cold days, increase of very warm days and extreme precipitation events has been confirmed for most of Russia, especially for the European part of the country (ER).…”

Changes in extreme precipitation over the North Caucasus and the Crimean Peninsula during 1961-2018

“…Rising occurrence rates of extreme summer precipitation were observed in the Central Black Earth Region of the European part of Russia over 1961(Zolotokrylin and Cherenkova, 2017. In 2000-2015, extreme winter precipitation was observed on a greater number of days per year compared to 1970-1999 in the European part and in the southern part of Russia (Titkova et al, 2018). Paper Ye (2018) identifies a correlation between air temperature and wet/dry periods: higher air temperatures were consistently associated with longer dry periods and shorter wet periods in summer.…”